HSX Forum

Playing & Trading Strategy

Reply Topic List All Forums

report abuse

General thoughts on 2022

Posted by: MattW on Jan 13, 20:09

All 2022 releases here on HSX right now add up to H$5932, and the ones at the end of the year will make some of their money next year (one of the big ones being avatar it might not make any money this year...), and so far this year's at $186m, so the HSX market collectively has the year valued about $6 billion (most movies are somewhat undervalued until close to release so really this indicates the market thinks the year will be over $6b, but anyway, just going on what's showing right now).

Chart of previous years

And here simplified to the average of 2012 to 2019, with 2020 and 2021 separate.

In 2021
July was 47% of the average
Aug was 48%
Sep 59%
Oct 89%
Nov 52%
Dec 82%

Oct and Dec are very promising while November less so, but even just taking the average of September through December gives 70% of the previous average, which works out to a year of $7.8 billion. Seems pretty reasonable to me, each month 60 to 90% of a normal year would be a pretty solid recovery.

January is not off to a great start tho, it's not quite at 60% of the previous average 12 days in and there's nothing strong on the schedule.

General thoughts on 2022 MattW Jan 13, 20:09

Update MattW Mar 27, 17:28

April coming in right at 550, 67% MattW Apr 27, 18:16

May looks like about 755 total, about 75% of the 2016-2019 mean MattW May 27, 14:50

A lot changed in the last few days, May 785 is 77% of 2012-2019 avg, 80% of 2016-2019 avg MattW Jun 02, 11:11

June comes in at 980 or so, 85% of the average. MattW Jun 28, 23:10

I was way off on July, mostly Minions but somewhat better from holdovers as well. Should be 1125 or so, about 90% of the average. MattW Jul 28, 14:01

August looks like it'll end up with about 180 from new releases, 285 from holdovers. {nm} MattW Aug 30, 18:51

192 Aug releases, 275 holdovers {nm} MattW Sep 06, 20:14

August ~475m, Sept <300m, Oct 400-500m {nm} MattW Aug 18, 08:47

Sept thinking 300-325 now, October 475-575 {nm} MattW Sep 07, 14:59

~330 {nm} MattW Sep 24, 17:22