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I'm not 100% sure, but feel that I recall that you have overestimated at least a couple women's movies, making similar sounding points?

Posted by: Facto on May 01, 19:18 in response to secretstalker's post You can't judge women's movies based on BOM Polls... I'd...

I also remember that time you mentioned all your female friends were going to see a movie, and I still wasn't convinved, but it was a success. So, it goes both ways. We all just have to remember that there's no golden rule that says that all kiddie flicks and women's movies will do better than what the exchange expects - cause we've seen enough examples that sometimes they really don't...

RS: [THOR] high 50s, [JUMPB] 10 million, [STBRW] high single digits {nm} secretstalker May 01, 18:46

[BRDSM] low 20s [PRIEST] slightly higher low 20s [PIRT4] 100 million [HNOV2] mid-to-high 80s 5 day [PAND2] 120 mil 5 day {nm} secretstalker May 01, 18:48

Here's my wild guess that MTC will be higher on THOR and BRDSM, and lower on Priest. Now, let's put wild guesses to the test. Facto May 01, 18:58

But it's surely... second gary May 01, 20:34

Hmm.. Although, Boxoffice.com has predicted a 95M OW for it, iirc? {nm} Facto May 01, 20:39

Yes, but there's no comment there on the 4-day / 5-day question. second gary May 01, 20:49

Hmmm... Very interesting, thanks {nm} Facto May 01, 20:54

Huh. Hangover and Panda are opening on Thursday? What's that multiplier then, Thursday + (2.2 * 4-day weekend)? {nm} ty97 May 01, 19:13

Yes {nm} secretstalker May 01, 19:14

Argh, weekends like that make by brain hurt. {nm} ty97 May 01, 19:33

Boxoffice.com also did not have high expectations for STBRW or JUMPB, calling them "modest romantic comedies" (iirc). {nm} Facto May 01, 18:54

Pretty sure STBRW will do better than that. {nm} secretstalker May 01, 18:54

Why? You don't state any reasons - BoxOffice.Com said something as to why they think it won't do much business :-) {nm} Facto May 01, 18:56

I don't think so. Twitter has missed lately, but it's quite reliable in predicting underperformers with low tweet counts. {nm} Rolling_Thunder May 01, 18:57

yeah the young woman fanbase of the book is INTENSE {nm} notfabio May 01, 18:57

two wedding comedies have never opened against each other different demo or not {nm} notfabio May 01, 18:59

And then Bridesmaids follows the week after. Talk about wedding overload! {nm} Rolling_Thunder May 01, 19:00

.. but, just to play devil's advocate, it *is* wedding season, no.. ? :-) Facto May 01, 20:03

There's a book? :) {nm} secretstalker May 01, 18:59

irony, right? Facto May 01, 19:00

(and I am of course not talking about notfabio!) {nm} Facto May 01, 19:06

naw. kate hudson is played out and no one knows who the other one even is {nm} islander May 01, 18:58

Yup, even in 2003, DVORC did 9M full run.. "Le Divorce is a wacky romantic comedy starring Kate Hudson and Naomi Watts." {nm} Facto May 01, 19:04

that wasnt given even a moderate push domestically and a terrible title {nm} notfabio May 01, 19:07

Sure, but it had Kate Hudson on the posters and marquees.. And Something Borrowed is expected to do at least double. Facto May 01, 19:09

MBFSG, Oct 2008 delist of 18.75: "Dane Cook and Kate Hudson star in the romantic comedy [My Best Friend's Girl].... " {nm} Facto May 01, 19:19

Then again, Bride Wars of course delisted at 53.89 February 2009. But was that due to a snappy title and Anne Hathaway (fresh from The Devil Facto May 01, 19:11

stbrw also plain, generic, terrible title. bet 5 h-bucks at least one review will lead with "Soemthing Boring" {nm} islander May 01, 19:12

Heh :-) "Something boring, snored all through" {nm} Facto May 01, 19:13

yeah it's pretty bland-looking jane_citizen May 01, 19:54

I think it looks dreadful jane_citizen May 01, 19:23

Thanks! ;-) What would you say were your favourite "women's movies/chick flicks" of the last 5 years? Devil Wears Prada, for instance? Facto May 01, 19:28

I suppose it pushes a 'meek inheriting the earth' button jane_citizen May 01, 19:51

I honestly don't know how STBRW could open worse than MADE OF HONOR in the same frame. {nm} dsbman May 01, 18:57

Bingo... the advertising for STBRW has been better and more prevalent even though I'm sure it's just as bad. {nm} secretstalker May 01, 19:01

We'll find out (if and when it happens, next weekend ;)) {nm} Facto May 01, 19:01

The BOM poll for STBRW is already starting out markedly weaker, which is a poor sign. {nm} Rolling_Thunder May 01, 19:04

You can't judge women's movies based on BOM Polls... I'd be shocked if they had more than 4 women responding {nm} secretstalker May 01, 19:14

I'm not 100% sure, but feel that I recall that you have overestimated at least a couple women's movies, making similar sounding points? Facto May 01, 19:18

If those 4 women answer every womens movie poll on BOM something can be gleaned from it via comparison. {nm} BionicMoron May 01, 19:29

actually, *something* fruitful has to come out of the hours I've wasted surfing twitter, and this is it: There are *plenty* of women on Twit Facto May 01, 19:34

(snark;) {nm} Facto May 01, 23:24

agreed jane_citizen May 01, 20:07

So, RS amended numbers. They used to be low 50's for THOR, mid teens for Borrowed and low double digits for Jumping. PVL Admin May 01, 19:40

Borrowed and Broom heading south - and in line with BoxOffice.com's predictions. So, MTC should be lower - but we'll see. {nm} Facto May 01, 19:42

Those are pretty weak numbers for Thor... it opened 82 million world wide... and no one knows about Thor outside america.. b4bad May 01, 20:41

No way! The bark-o-meter has it lower than Fast5. More to follow later in the week. {nm} PVL Admin May 01, 20:54

Thor has more oversea appeal {nm} xiayun May 01, 21:01

Now that's just crazy talk... Facto May 01, 22:44

I'd suggest Thors Australian popularity is more to do with the fact Chris Hemsworth rose to fame playing a key role osmosis2003 May 01, 22:45

makes a lot of sense. Not much love for Thor from the Germans, though - perhaps they remember their previous führer that dug Norse mythology {nm} Facto May 02, 00:56

fuhrer/leader - Hitler dug Norse mythology, iirc, as did his favourite composer Richard Wagner ("March of the Valkyries", used in Star Wars, Facto May 02, 00:58





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