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After reading the HP research article, it wasn't clear to me that they predicted anything

Posted by: soopersaiyan319 on Apr 04, 05:38 in response to notfabio's post LATIMES: HP Labs in Palo Alto claims it has reached as...

They created a mathematical model from the data (tweet rate, opening weekend box office, and theater counts) of 24 movies. Then they plugged back in the variables (tweet rate and theater counts) of those 24 movies back into the model to calculate an estimated box office and found it was pretty accurate. Doesn't that just mean that their model is a good fit for their data that it was based on? They don't show any trials or predictions for movies outside of the 24 that they used to obtain their model so it's not clear how accurate the model is as a predictor for new movies.

I could be totally wrong, but that's my interpretation of their paper.

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LATIMES: HP Labs in Palo Alto claims it has reached as high as 97.3% accuracy in box office projections off of Twitter notfabio Apr 04, 00:17

yeah but is Twitter studio-plant--proof? {nm} tealfan Apr 04, 00:25

It's 97% proof. I hope you understand that that is warts and all.... {nm} Facto Apr 04, 06:43

My method of divining rods and tea leaves is 98.2% accurate...as long as I don't have to show data either (nm) AB_Excello Apr 04, 00:51

They have done a good job of ripping off my work and claiming it all for themselves. I'll give that to them... {nm} horlicks Apr 04, 03:09

Seriously? I know that you were using a system with Twitter, but I just don't see how this works... secretstalker Apr 04, 06:42

SS, lordy lord, of course you are aware that you can estimate tweet-rate for topics that aren't trending in the world wide top 10? Facto Apr 04, 06:47

but some movies won't show up on Twitter at all, just like with tracking. secretstalker Apr 04, 06:56

I've actually yet to see a movie that isn't tweeted about... Facto Apr 04, 07:06

I just looked for Date Night... and most of the tweets seemed to be about places where you could download the movie... secretstalker Apr 04, 07:23

Yup. Some titles will be afflicted with such contamination. For Date Night it will be a little tricky. Must use quotation marks, and make an Facto Apr 04, 09:18

After reading the HP research article, it wasn't clear to me that they predicted anything soopersaiyan319 Apr 04, 05:38

Exactly, let's see their predictions going forth, not within their limited sample. HSX predicts box office months out from release, not afte {nm} Antibody Apr 04, 10:59

not after theater counts are known one day before release date. {nm} Antibody Apr 04, 11:06

Interesting, I was at 98% on Dragon and Clash (based on estimates) without using Twitter. {nm} secretstalker Apr 04, 06:40

Nevermind on Clash... just saw the numbers below.. still, I was much closer than RS/MTC who predicted $77 to over $80 million. Ridiculous. {nm} secretstalker Apr 04, 06:43

I like how they are less good at predicting second weekends than opening weekends {nm} RogerMore Apr 04, 06:59

i like how this is total bull**** lol. {nm} HS-X Apr 04, 09:47

its says "as much as 97.3% accuracy". thats not the average, thats the max. Whats the mean? {nm} Moviesnob Apr 04, 11:02





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The First Omen - Opening Weekend (OMEN1.OW) 99999 12.26 (+0.10)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 150000 19.28 (-0.72)          Greenhouse aka The Uninhabitable (GRENH) 149996 41.64 (-0.09)          The Friend (FREND) 150000 6.25 (+0.03)          Don't Tell Mom the Babysitter's (DTMBD) 150000 2.52 (+0.05)          With Love (WOLOV) 5100 22.51 (+0.02)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 31436 19.28 (-0.72)          Look Who's Talking (LWTLK) 149998 4.94 (+0.16)          A Complete Unknown aka Going Ele (GOELC) 149998 17.53 (+0.45)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2.PU) 25000 2.02 (-0.36)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2.CA) 25000 3.11 (+0.24)          Cuckoo (CUCKO) 9999 3.32 (+0.11)          Cuckoo (CUCKO) 150000 3.32 (+0.11)          A Life of Jesus (ALJES) 149997 18.54 (+0.07)          Michael Chiklis (MCHIK) 25000 13.49 (-0.10)          Kinds of Kindness (AND) 149998 18.25 (+0.79)          Star Trek 4 (TREK4) 29999 64.81 (+0.21)          The First Omen H$10 Call (OMEN1.CA) 1 2.96 (+0.02)          Kinds of Kindness (AND) 149997 18.25 (+0.79)          The First Omen H$10 Put (OMEN1.PU) 25000 1.47 (-0.08)          Dakota Fanning (DFANN) 25000 44.43 (+0.16)          Kinds of Kindness (AND) 29999 18.25 (+0.79)          Kinds of Kindness (AND) 99999 18.25 (+0.79)          A Simple Favor 2 (ASFA2) 1 18.21 (+1.50)          Civil War - Opening Weekend (CVLWR.OW) 100000 21.90 (+0.41)          The First Omen - Opening Weekend (OMEN1.OW) 1 12.26 (+0.10)          Ray Romano (RROMA) 25000 49.11 (-0.16)          A Simple Favor 2 (ASFA2) 9999 18.21 (+1.50)          Civil War H$20 Call (CVLWR.CA) 1 2.62 (+0.06)          Untitled Bee Gees (BEEGE) 149997 16.21 (-0.12)          Civil War - Opening Weekend (CVLWR.OW) 1 21.90 (+0.41)          Eric Bana (EBANA) 25000 34.59 (-0.12)          Atlantis (ATLNT) 29999 21.42 (+1.72)          Atlantis (ATLNT) 9999 21.42 (+1.72)          The Opening Weekend Fund (OPENR) 1 97.87 (-0.11)          Cloverfield 2 (CLOV2) 149997 26.14 (+0.03)          Fruitcake (FRUTC) 149997 3.52 (+0.03)          Moana (MOAN1) 150000 152.70 (+0.33)          Civil War H$20 Put (CVLWR.PU) 1 2.18 (-0.05)          Edge of Tomorrow 2 aka Live, Die (EDGT2) 149997 17.85 (+0.05)          Devara Part 1 (DEVAR) 149997 6.53 (+0.03)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2.PU) 25000 2.02 (-0.36)          Georgina Campbell (GCAMP) 25000 19.58 (+0.30)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2.PU) 25000 2.02 (-0.36)          Sienna Miller (SMILL) 25000 14.82 (+0.10)          Georgina Campbell (GCAMP) 25000 19.58 (+0.30)          Wicked Little Letters (WCKLL) 150000 2.63 (+0.17)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2.OW) 100000 59.82 (+1.47)          Wicked Little Letters (WCKLL) 149997 2.63 (+0.17)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2.OW) 100000 59.82 (+1.47)