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After reading the HP research article, it wasn't clear to me that they predicted anything
They created a mathematical model from the data (tweet rate, opening weekend box office, and theater counts) of 24 movies. Then they plugged back in the variables (tweet rate and theater counts) of those 24 movies back into the model to calculate an estimated box office and found it was pretty accurate. Doesn't that just mean that their model is a good fit for their data that it was based on? They don't show any trials or predictions for movies outside of the 24 that they used to obtain their model so it's not clear how accurate the model is as a predictor for new movies.
I could be totally wrong, but that's my interpretation of their paper.
LATIMES: HP Labs in Palo Alto claims it has reached as high as 97.3% accuracy in box office projections off of Twitter Apr 04, 00:17
yeah but is Twitter studio-plant--proof? {nm} Apr 04, 00:25
It's 97% proof. I hope you understand that that is warts and all.... {nm} Apr 04, 06:43
My method of divining rods and tea leaves is 98.2% accurate...as long as I don't have to show data either (nm) Apr 04, 00:51
They have done a good job of ripping off my work and claiming it all for themselves. I'll give that to them... {nm} Apr 04, 03:09
Seriously? I know that you were using a system with Twitter, but I just don't see how this works... Apr 04, 06:42
but some movies won't show up on Twitter at all, just like with tracking. Apr 04, 06:56
I've actually yet to see a movie that isn't tweeted about... Apr 04, 07:06
I just looked for Date Night... and most of the tweets seemed to be about places where you could download the movie... Apr 04, 07:23
After reading the HP research article, it wasn't clear to me that they predicted anything Apr 04, 05:38
not after theater counts are known one day before release date. {nm} Apr 04, 11:06
Interesting, I was at 98% on Dragon and Clash (based on estimates) without using Twitter. {nm} Apr 04, 06:40
I like how they are less good at predicting second weekends than opening weekends {nm} Apr 04, 06:59
i like how this is total bull**** lol. {nm} Apr 04, 09:47
its says "as much as 97.3% accuracy". thats not the average, thats the max. Whats the mean? {nm} Apr 04, 11:02