HSX Forum

Movies

After reading the HP research article, it wasn't clear to me that they predicted anything

Posted by: soopersaiyan319 on Apr 04, 05:38 in response to notfabio's post LATIMES: HP Labs in Palo Alto claims it has reached as...

They created a mathematical model from the data (tweet rate, opening weekend box office, and theater counts) of 24 movies. Then they plugged back in the variables (tweet rate and theater counts) of those 24 movies back into the model to calculate an estimated box office and found it was pretty accurate. Doesn't that just mean that their model is a good fit for their data that it was based on? They don't show any trials or predictions for movies outside of the 24 that they used to obtain their model so it's not clear how accurate the model is as a predictor for new movies.

I could be totally wrong, but that's my interpretation of their paper.

Ā 

LATIMES: HP Labs in Palo Alto claims it has reached as high as 97.3% accuracy in box office projections off of Twitter notfabio Apr 04, 00:17

yeah but is Twitter studio-plant--proof? {nm} tealfan Apr 04, 00:25

It's 97% proof. I hope you understand that that is warts and all.... {nm} Facto Apr 04, 06:43

My method of divining rods and tea leaves is 98.2% accurate...as long as I don't have to show data either (nm) AB_Excello Apr 04, 00:51

They have done a good job of ripping off my work and claiming it all for themselves. I'll give that to them... {nm} horlicks Apr 04, 03:09

Seriously? I know that you were using a system with Twitter, but I just don't see how this works... secretstalker Apr 04, 06:42

SS, lordy lord, of course you are aware that you can estimate tweet-rate for topics that aren't trending in the world wide top 10? Facto Apr 04, 06:47

but some movies won't show up on Twitter at all, just like with tracking. secretstalker Apr 04, 06:56

I've actually yet to see a movie that isn't tweeted about... Facto Apr 04, 07:06

I just looked for Date Night... and most of the tweets seemed to be about places where you could download the movie... secretstalker Apr 04, 07:23

Yup. Some titles will be afflicted with such contamination. For Date Night it will be a little tricky. Must use quotation marks, and make an Facto Apr 04, 09:18

After reading the HP research article, it wasn't clear to me that they predicted anything soopersaiyan319 Apr 04, 05:38

Exactly, let's see their predictions going forth, not within their limited sample. HSX predicts box office months out from release, not afte {nm} Antibody Apr 04, 10:59

not after theater counts are known one day before release date. {nm} Antibody Apr 04, 11:06

Interesting, I was at 98% on Dragon and Clash (based on estimates) without using Twitter. {nm} secretstalker Apr 04, 06:40

Nevermind on Clash... just saw the numbers below.. still, I was much closer than RS/MTC who predicted $77 to over $80 million. Ridiculous. {nm} secretstalker Apr 04, 06:43

I like how they are less good at predicting second weekends than opening weekends {nm} RogerMore Apr 04, 06:59

i like how this is total bull**** lol. {nm} HS-X Apr 04, 09:47

its says "as much as 97.3% accuracy". thats not the average, thats the max. Whats the mean? {nm} Moviesnob Apr 04, 11:02





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


Rob Delaney (RDELA) 25000 79.20 (+0.25)          Jennifer Garner (JEGAR) 25000 58.23 (+0.50)          Power Ballad (PWRBL) 150000 13.61 (-0.66)          Dracula - Universal (DRCUL) 150000 16.63 (-0.31)          The Adventures of Priscilla: Que (APQD2) 150000 12.24 (+1.52)          Widow Clicquot (WCLIQ) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          Daisy Ridley (DRIDL) 25000 46.40 (+0.34)          Elevation (ELVTN) 150000 7.43 (-0.60)          A Quiet Place: Day One $130M Blo (AQPL3.BW) 25000 5.44 (+0.44)          Three Bags Full: A Sheep Detecti (3BAGF) 150000 30.00 (0.00)          Cuckoo (CUCKO) 150000 6.43 (+0.07)          Glen Powell (GPOWE) 25000 121.41 (+1.13)          Cuckoo (CUCKO) 150000 6.43 (+0.07)          Kristen Wiig (KWIIG) 25000 92.83 (+0.70)          Crime 101 (CRIM1) 356 33.42 (-0.67)          Joey King (JOKIN) 25000 77.57 (+0.25)          Three Bags Full: A Sheep Detecti (3BAGF) 50000 30.00 (0.00)          Widow Clicquot (WCLIQ) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          Sofia Vergara (SVERG) 25000 65.67 (-0.50)          Moana 2 (MOAN2) 1000 206.89 (+0.13)          Eden aka Origin Of Species (OSPEC) 300 24.20 (+0.07)          Fly Me to the Moon (PARTM) 150000 25.64 (-1.37)          Die, My Love (DIMLV) 150000 6.11 (+0.09)          The Wild Robot (TWRBT) 65650 78.87 (+0.92)          Fly Me to the Moon (PARTM) 150000 25.64 (-1.37)          Anthony Ramos (ARAMO) 25000 95.24 (+0.50)          Daisy Edgar-Jones (DEDGA) 25000 87.74 (0.00)          Beverly Hills Cop: Axel F (BHCP4) 150000 0.01 (0.00)          Beverly Hills Cop: Axel F (BHCP4) 100000 0.01 (0.00)          David Corenswet (DCORE) 25000 61.07 (+0.72)          The Order (TORDR) 149950 7.10 (+0.03)          Pokemon: Detective Pikachu 2 (PIKA2) 90000 30.44 (-0.04)          Glen Powell (GPOWE) 1000 121.41 (+1.13)          Pokemon: Detective Pikachu 2 (PIKA2) 10000 30.44 (-0.04)          Spawn (SPWN2) 150000 3.34 (+0.64)          Shell (SHELL) 500 6.42 (+0.01)          Young Woman and the Sea (YWATS) 150000 2.05 (+0.02)          Young Woman and the Sea (YWATS) 150000 2.05 (+0.02)          Moana 2 (MOAN2) 116261 206.89 (+0.13)          Edge of Tomorrow 2 aka Live, Die (EDGT2) 150000 14.60 (+0.08)          Assassination (ASSNT) 300 14.23 (-0.07)          The End (THEND) 150000 2.20 (+0.14)          The End (THEND) 150000 2.20 (+0.14)          A Quiet Place: Day One $130M Blo (AQPL3.BW) 25000 5.44 (+0.44)          The Assessment (ASSMT) 150000 4.29 (+0.22)          The Assessment (ASSMT) 150000 4.29 (+0.22)          The Fabulous Four (TFAB4) 150000 4.48 (+1.17)          The Life of Chuck (LCHUC) 150000 20.29 (+0.13)          The Smashing Machine (SMACH) 150000 17.89 (+0.10)          The Life of Chuck (LCHUC) 150000 20.29 (+0.13)