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$150m is very realistic; the OW won't decrease from the second one, although I don't see it breaking the OW record either

Posted by: xiayun on Nov 16, 17:08 in response to robineau's post I don't know where they're getting their figures. That's...

The leg will be shorter, so could see something like $150m/$300m.

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BO's estimates are up- TWLI4 150 (Fandango says more than 3000 showings sold out), HPYF2 42.5 (only 1% of daily sales on Fandango) Paul2k Nov 16, 14:28

I don't know where they're getting their figures. That's waaaaay too high for TWLI4. nm robineau Nov 16, 14:55

What makes you say that? {nm} Ruthian23 Nov 16, 15:13

Midnights are lagging way behind the previous two films, and there's no IMAX $$ this time. nm robineau Nov 17, 06:59

They make their estimates based off of, among other things, twitter and facebook tracking for which they have identified historical trends. {nm} Paul2k Nov 16, 15:21

I disagree. {nm} PVL Admin (Rocket123) Nov 16, 15:40

As much as I think it will be around $150M, there is more potential upside by shorting the OW at present, therefore I have done so. accountant_4_Jesus Nov 16, 15:43

Thanks for bringing up the derivatives; I had completely spaced on them and forgotten their strike prices. Adjusted accordingly. {nm} Paul2k Nov 16, 15:51

You disappoint me Paul... {nm} PRodQuanta Nov 16, 15:52

Happens even to the best of us, don't it? ;) {nm} accountant_4_Jesus Nov 16, 15:54

I agree. {nm} PVL Admin (Rocket123) Nov 16, 17:43

$150m is very realistic; the OW won't decrease from the second one, although I don't see it breaking the OW record either xiayun Nov 16, 17:08

Nice to have you back, xia. How was Hawaii? {nm} Paul2k Nov 16, 17:10

I'm still here! Just arrived at Maui; it's been wonderful, even better than my high expectation {nm} xiayun Nov 16, 17:30

I agree. {nm} PVL Admin (Rocket123) Nov 16, 17:44

I abstain. {nm} PRodQuanta Nov 16, 23:30





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The Housemaid - Opening Weekend (HMAID.OW) 100000 22.78 (-1.76)          Jimmy (JIMYS) 100000 8.79 (+0.24)          Jimmy (JIMYS) 150000 8.79 (+0.24)          The Conjuring Prequel (CNJU5) 10000 90.85 (+0.31)          Girls Like Girls (GRLGR) 100000 6.81 (+0.82)          Girls Like Girls (GRLGR) 150000 6.81 (+0.82)          Smile 3 (SMIL3) 150000 24.09 (-0.16)          Smile 3 (SMIL3) 150000 24.09 (-0.16)          David (DAVID) 108069 76.46 (-1.12)          Silent Night, Deadly Night (SNDN) 150000 3.13 (-0.02)          Avatar: Fire and Ash (AVAT3) 500 446.12 (-2.57)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 (5NAF2) 500 119.99 (+0.44)          Constantine 2 (CNST2) 75000 41.81 (-0.40)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4) 150000 64.47 (-1.92)          Constantine 2 (CNST2) 75000 41.81 (-0.40)          The Housemaid (HMAID) 150000 60.73 (-2.49)          The Wrecking Crew (WCREW) 2 14.62 (-1.58)          The Housemaid H$20 Put (HMAID.PU) 25000 1.31 (-0.05)          The Housemaid - Opening Weekend (HMAID.OW) 100000 22.78 (-1.76)          Split Fiction (SPFIC) 149993 41.81 (-5.31)          Split Fiction (SPFIC) 149993 41.81 (-5.31)          The Wrecking Crew (WCREW) 150000 14.62 (-1.58)          Love is Not the Answer (LINTA) 150000 5.00 (0.00)          A Great Aawkening (AGAWK) 150000 10.00 (0.00)          Clue (CLUE) 132432 14.72 (+0.01)          The Conjuring Prequel (CNJU5) 150000 90.85 (+0.31)          Jeff Goldblum (JGOLD) 25000 154.06 (-1.58)          The Conjuring Prequel (CNJU5) 150000 90.85 (+0.31)          Airman (AIRMA) 100000 23.56 (-0.51)          Wicked: For Good $315M Blockbust (WCKD2.BW) 25000 7.02 (+0.55)          Wicked: For Good $315M Blockbust (WCKD2.BW) 25000 7.02 (+0.55)          Avatar: Fire and Ash H$125 Call (AVAT3.CA) 25000 2.72 (-0.58)          Avatar: Fire and Ash - Opening W (AVAT3.OW) 100000 117.74 (-4.09)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.CA) 25000 0.45 (-0.33)          Avatar: Fire and Ash (AVAT3) 4489 446.12 (-2.57)          Wicked: For Good $315M Blockbust (WCKD2.BW) 16404 7.02 (+0.55)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.CA) 25000 0.45 (-0.33)          Avatar: Fire and Ash (AVAT3) 1500 446.12 (-2.57)          Love is Not the Answer (LINTA) 100000 5.00 (0.00)          Avengers: Secret Wars (AVNG6) 5000 461.17 (+1.01)          Wicked: For Good $315M Blockbust (WCKD2.BW) 8596 7.02 (+0.55)          A Great Aawkening (AGAWK) 100000 10.00 (0.00)          Avatar: Fire and Ash - Opening W (AVAT3.OW) 100000 117.74 (-4.09)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.OW) 100000 18.60 (-0.94)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.OW) 100000 18.60 (-0.94)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.OW) 100000 18.60 (-0.94)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4) 150000 64.47 (-1.92)          Karoshi (KAROS) 50000 15.47 (-0.32)          A Great Aawkening (AGAWK) 20025 10.00 (0.00)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4) 150000 64.47 (-1.92)