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Warning: this post contains an "if / then" statement on the STAR7 delist.

Posted by: second gary (a.k.a 80181597) on Dec 27, 09:31

If STAR7 were to match AVATR to delist, then it would delist at roughly H$762, i.e., the Sunday cume of 544 + 212 (the last 14 days of AVATR's HSX release phase).  There is the *slight* complicating factor that the second weekend of STAR7 looks to be about twice the second weeknd of AVATR.  :)

Warning: this post contains an "if / then" statement on the STAR7 delist. second gary Dec 27, 09:31

The real *large* complicating factor is STAR7 dropped 38% while AVATR only dropped 1.8%. {nm} Antibody Dec 27, 09:53

If I remember correctly, there was a big snowstorm that hit the northeast during Avatar's first weekend. {nm} fourstars Dec 27, 10:00

AVATR was a word of mouth smash. It had bad buzz going into opening weekend. There was no fanbase to frontload opening weekend. {nm} Antibody Dec 27, 10:08

yep. a bunch of people who planned to go opening weekend couldn't do so and went the following weekend. {nm} CSBD Dec 27, 10:11

Have an excuse for its 9.4% drop from weekend 2 to weekend 3? {nm} benz0 Dec 27, 14:16

'cause people liked it a lot? why do you need an excuse? {nm} CSBD Dec 27, 18:31

+1 {nm} RamsFan2004 Dec 27, 19:20

The changing nature of Thursday previews complicates comping OW to second weekend drops. RogerMore's database lists AVATR's R previews. . . second gary Dec 27, 10:02

The completely original AVATR is a "ceiling comp" for the sequel STAR7 with a built-in fanbase. {nm} Antibody Dec 27, 10:03

I saw it this afternoon, and its ticketholder line-up (in suburban Toronto) had the strangest demographic mix I've ever seen. second gary Dec 27, 16:49

Based on this weekend's performance (stellar as it is), I am moving DOWN my delist calculation for STAR7. (no if / then clauses) Rocket123 aka PVL Admin Dec 27, 09:54

pretty cosistant over the weekend. all right around 50m. That % drop was off monster numbers. {nm} tradermark Dec 27, 09:56

Still over 800 delist based on my own calculations xiayun Dec 27, 10:07

I'm thinking delist would go around 830M. {nm} Filmstardust Dec 27, 12:52

I'm with you and xiayun, low 800's MattW Dec 27, 13:31

Weekdays this week will be much higher than 25 per day xiayun Dec 27, 15:13





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The Drama H$15 Call (TDRAM.CA) 25000 2.44 (-0.06)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie H$1 (MARI2.CA) 25000 3.66 (+0.45)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie H$1 (MARI2.PU) 25000 1.64 (-0.11)          Silent Friend (SLNTF) 31000 0.60 (-0.01)          The Drama H$15 Put (TDRAM.PU) 25000 1.63 (+0.06)          The Drama - Opening Weekend (TDRAM.OW) 100000 15.58 (-0.14)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie - O (MARI2.OW) 100000 146.94 (+0.89)          Star Wars: Dawn of the Jedi (STRW1) 4420 95.84 (+0.65)          Rose of Nevada (ROSNV) 31000 0.79 (0.00)          Normal (NORML) 8100 17.43 (-0.15)          Honeymoon With Harry (HWHRY) 150000 13.19 (+0.19)          Honeymoon With Harry (HWHRY) 150000 13.19 (+0.19)          Poetic License (PLICN) 4160 7.77 (-0.05)          Heart Eyes 2 (HRTE2) 150000 21.29 (+1.29)          Alpha (ALPH1) 31000 1.93 (+0.01)          Heart Eyes 2 (HRTE2) 150000 21.29 (+1.29)          Anxious People (ANXPE) 155 9.99 (-0.04)          Assassination (ASSNT) 5 7.83 (+0.03)          Bedford Park (BEDFP) 150000 1.36 (+0.03)          Three Incestuous Sisters (3INCS) 150 14.85 (+1.71)          Tuner (TUNER) 90120 5.88 (-0.02)          Sheep in the Box (SHPBX) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          All of a Sudden (AOASD) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (MARI2) 150000 496.26 (-0.49)          Sheep in the Box (SHPBX) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Robert Pattinson (RPATT) 25000 75.86 (0.00)          Robert Pattinson (RPATT) 25000 75.86 (0.00)          Robert Pattinson (RPATT) 25000 75.86 (0.00)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (MARI2) 10000 496.26 (-0.49)          Poetic License (PLICN) 70009 7.77 (-0.05)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie H$1 (MARI2.PU) 500 1.64 (-0.11)          Normal (NORML) 9089 17.43 (-0.15)          The Weight (THEWT) 150000 6.97 (-0.09)          Dhurandhar: The Revenge (DHUR2) 150000 20.18 (+0.55)          Rupert Friend (RFRIE) 25000 58.00 (0.00)          All of a Sudden (AOASD) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 120000 13.04 (-0.06)          Sheep in the Box (SHPBX) 1 2.00 (0.00)          Project Hail Mary (PRJHM) 50000 218.74 (+8.56)          Sheep in the Box (SHPBX) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          All of a Sudden (AOASD) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Poetic License (PLICN) 31459 7.77 (-0.05)          EPiC: Elvis Presley in Concert (EPICC) 50000 12.83 (-0.01)          Sharlto Copley (SCOPL) 25000 12.85 (0.00)          Sheep in the Box (SHPBX) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          All of a Sudden (AOASD) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          All of a Sudden (AOASD) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Hot Wheels (HOTWH) 100000 21.64 (-0.04)          Whitney Springs aka Untitled Tre (WHTSP) 130000 22.78 (-0.09)          Poetic License (PLICN) 71008 7.77 (-0.05)