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Warning: this post contains an "if / then" statement on the STAR7 delist.

Posted by: second gary (a.k.a 80181597) on Dec 27, 09:31

If STAR7 were to match AVATR to delist, then it would delist at roughly H$762, i.e., the Sunday cume of 544 + 212 (the last 14 days of AVATR's HSX release phase).  There is the *slight* complicating factor that the second weekend of STAR7 looks to be about twice the second weeknd of AVATR.  :)

Warning: this post contains an "if / then" statement on the STAR7 delist. second gary Dec 27, 09:31

The real *large* complicating factor is STAR7 dropped 38% while AVATR only dropped 1.8%. {nm} Antibody Dec 27, 09:53

If I remember correctly, there was a big snowstorm that hit the northeast during Avatar's first weekend. {nm} fourstars Dec 27, 10:00

AVATR was a word of mouth smash. It had bad buzz going into opening weekend. There was no fanbase to frontload opening weekend. {nm} Antibody Dec 27, 10:08

yep. a bunch of people who planned to go opening weekend couldn't do so and went the following weekend. {nm} CSBD Dec 27, 10:11

Have an excuse for its 9.4% drop from weekend 2 to weekend 3? {nm} benz0 Dec 27, 14:16

'cause people liked it a lot? why do you need an excuse? {nm} CSBD Dec 27, 18:31

+1 {nm} RamsFan2004 Dec 27, 19:20

The changing nature of Thursday previews complicates comping OW to second weekend drops. RogerMore's database lists AVATR's R previews. . . second gary Dec 27, 10:02

The completely original AVATR is a "ceiling comp" for the sequel STAR7 with a built-in fanbase. {nm} Antibody Dec 27, 10:03

I saw it this afternoon, and its ticketholder line-up (in suburban Toronto) had the strangest demographic mix I've ever seen. second gary Dec 27, 16:49

Based on this weekend's performance (stellar as it is), I am moving DOWN my delist calculation for STAR7. (no if / then clauses) Rocket123 aka PVL Admin Dec 27, 09:54

pretty cosistant over the weekend. all right around 50m. That % drop was off monster numbers. {nm} tradermark Dec 27, 09:56

Still over 800 delist based on my own calculations xiayun Dec 27, 10:07

I'm thinking delist would go around 830M. {nm} Filmstardust Dec 27, 12:52

I'm with you and xiayun, low 800's MattW Dec 27, 13:31

Weekdays this week will be much higher than 25 per day xiayun Dec 27, 15:13





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Gremlins 3 (GREM3) 150000 36.09 (-1.02)          Prima Facie (PRMAF) 25000 1.82 (-0.18)          Ice Cream Man - Opening Weekend (ICREM.OW) 100000 3.01 (-0.09)          Super Troopers 3 H$15 Put (STRO3.PU) 25000 3.74 (+0.06)          The End of Oak Street H$30 Call (FLWVS.CA) 100 0.91 (-0.14)          Super Troopers 3 H$15 Call (STRO3.CA) 25000 0.82 (+0.04)          Jennifer's Body 2 (JBOD2) 150000 14.58 (+0.79)          The End of Oak Street H$30 Call (FLWVS.CA) 100 0.91 (-0.14)          Miami Vice '85 (MIVIC) 10000 104.86 (-2.31)          The Matrix 5 (MTRX5) 150000 32.86 (+1.03)          The Basics of Philosophy (TBOPH) 149999 2.13 (-0.07)          The Basics of Philosophy (TBOPH) 60000 2.13 (-0.07)          The Bell Jar (BLJAR) 30000 10.06 (-0.98)          Victorian Psycho (VPSYC) 150000 16.88 (+1.98)          The Weight (THEWT) 75000 8.50 (+0.02)          Mutiny H$10 Call (MUTNY.CA) 25000 2.60 (-0.12)          Drifter (DRFTR) 20000 4.85 (+1.32)          Kockroach (KOCKR) 19999 15.23 (0.00)          Mutiny - Opening Weekend (MUTNY.OW) 5000 10.81 (-0.30)          The Bell Jar (BLJAR) 75000 10.06 (-0.98)          Kockroach (KOCKR) 29999 15.23 (0.00)          Gold Mountain (OGMTN) 30000 14.90 (+0.02)          The Matrix 5 (MTRX5) 5 32.86 (+1.03)          Mutiny H$10 Put (MUTNY.PU) 25000 1.72 (+0.07)          The Princess Diaries 3 (PDIA3) 50000 36.26 (-0.12)          Margie Claus (MARGC) 8000 27.70 (-0.26)          The Bell Jar (BLJAR) 1000 10.06 (-0.98)          Company (COMPN) 500 9.47 (+0.88)          The Matrix 5 (MTRX5) 88000 32.86 (+1.03)          Helldivers (HELDV) 15000 111.75 (+1.02)          The Basics of Philosophy (TBOPH) 100000 2.13 (-0.07)          Drifter (DRFTR) 149000 4.85 (+1.32)          Prima Facie (PRMAF) 100000 1.82 (-0.18)          The Jetsons (JETSN) 10000 64.74 (+0.05)          Onwards and Sideways (OWASW) 75000 1.86 (-0.14)          Jurassic World sequel (JURA8) 39000 230.55 (+1.77)          Wonka 2 (WONK2) 149989 48.25 (-1.43)          Club Kid (CLUBK) 5000 12.55 (-0.87)          Jurassic World sequel (JURA8) 100000 230.55 (+1.77)          One Night Only (ONTON) 40000 19.62 (-0.41)          The Gallerist (GALRS) 150000 5.95 (+0.10)          Wonka 2 (WONK2) 149989 48.25 (-1.43)          Margie Claus (MARGC) 1000 27.70 (-0.26)          Prima Facie (PRMAF) 150000 1.82 (-0.18)          The Gallerist (GALRS) 150000 5.95 (+0.10)          The Gallerist (GALRS) 150000 5.95 (+0.10)          Onwards and Sideways (OWASW) 150000 1.86 (-0.14)          Ice Cream Man (ICREM) 150000 7.89 (-0.75)          Ice Cream Man (ICREM) 150000 7.89 (-0.75)          Her Private Hell (HERPH) 150000 1.07 (-0.02)