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The changing nature of Thursday previews complicates comping OW to second weekend drops. RogerMore's database lists AVATR's R previews. . .

Posted by: second gary (a.k.a 80181597) on Dec 27, 10:02 in response to Antibody's post The real *large* complicating factor is STAR7 dropped 38%...

... as 3.7M.  You could argue for calculating STAR7's second weekend drop at somewhere around 25%, i.e. (OW - previews) / second weekend.  But I brought AVATR as a "floor comp," because it was the biggest grossing December holiday performer we've had.  

Warning: this post contains an "if / then" statement on the STAR7 delist. second gary Dec 27, 09:31

The real *large* complicating factor is STAR7 dropped 38% while AVATR only dropped 1.8%. {nm} Antibody Dec 27, 09:53

If I remember correctly, there was a big snowstorm that hit the northeast during Avatar's first weekend. {nm} fourstars Dec 27, 10:00

AVATR was a word of mouth smash. It had bad buzz going into opening weekend. There was no fanbase to frontload opening weekend. {nm} Antibody Dec 27, 10:08

yep. a bunch of people who planned to go opening weekend couldn't do so and went the following weekend. {nm} CSBD Dec 27, 10:11

Have an excuse for its 9.4% drop from weekend 2 to weekend 3? {nm} benz0 Dec 27, 14:16

'cause people liked it a lot? why do you need an excuse? {nm} CSBD Dec 27, 18:31

+1 {nm} RamsFan2004 Dec 27, 19:20

The changing nature of Thursday previews complicates comping OW to second weekend drops. RogerMore's database lists AVATR's R previews. . . second gary Dec 27, 10:02

The completely original AVATR is a "ceiling comp" for the sequel STAR7 with a built-in fanbase. {nm} Antibody Dec 27, 10:03

I saw it this afternoon, and its ticketholder line-up (in suburban Toronto) had the strangest demographic mix I've ever seen. second gary Dec 27, 16:49

Based on this weekend's performance (stellar as it is), I am moving DOWN my delist calculation for STAR7. (no if / then clauses) Rocket123 aka PVL Admin Dec 27, 09:54

pretty cosistant over the weekend. all right around 50m. That % drop was off monster numbers. {nm} tradermark Dec 27, 09:56

Still over 800 delist based on my own calculations xiayun Dec 27, 10:07

I'm thinking delist would go around 830M. {nm} Filmstardust Dec 27, 12:52

I'm with you and xiayun, low 800's MattW Dec 27, 13:31

Weekdays this week will be much higher than 25 per day xiayun Dec 27, 15:13





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Ma 2 (MA2) 24000 18.12 (-0.16)          Love is Not the Answer (LINTA) 150000 5.00 (0.00)          Ma 2 (MA2) 27000 18.12 (-0.16)          John Leguizamo (JLEGU) 100 60.43 (+1.00)          A Great Aawkening (AGAWK) 150000 10.00 (0.00)          Jimmy (JIMYS) 3 9.10 (+0.55)          Swamp Thing (SWAMP) 1000 24.03 (0.00)          Swamp Thing (SWAMP) 4000 24.03 (0.00)          Fuze (FUZE) 10000 13.84 (+0.05)          Gemma Arterton (GARTE) 100 7.90 (+0.05)          Shelter (SELTR) 14000 22.34 (-0.13)          Swamp Thing (SWAMP) 6000 24.03 (0.00)          Dylan O’Brien (DOBRI) 100 26.78 (+0.12)          Anaconda H$30 Call (ANAC3.CA) 25000 1.12 (-0.12)          Grendel (GREND) 28000 15.06 (-0.06)          Danny Trejo (DTREJ) 100 85.82 (+1.30)          By Design (BYDSG) 4 0.52 (-0.04)          Grendel (GREND) 28000 15.06 (-0.06)          Juliette Lewis (JLEWI) 24994 17.03 (+0.11)          Daisy Ridley (DRIDL) 100 4.51 (+0.10)          Normal (NORML) 75000 20.29 (+0.09)          Cillian Murphy (CMURP) 100 97.27 (+0.50)          Love is Not the Answer (LINTA) 2832 5.00 (0.00)          Cara Delevingne (CDELE) 100 52.82 (+0.16)          Bill Skarsgard (BSKAR) 100 55.57 (+0.16)          Uncharted 2 (UNCH2) 28000 20.92 (-0.10)          Ben Affleck (BAFFL) 100 44.65 (+0.33)          Uncharted 2 (UNCH2) 7000 20.92 (-0.10)          Christine (CRSTN) 150000 17.74 (+1.05)          Aubrey Plaza (APLAZ) 100 6.65 (+0.20)          Godzilla x Kong: Supernova (GOKO3) 147 148.41 (+0.97)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.CA) 10000 0.44 (-0.34)          Godzilla x Kong: Supernova (GOKO3) 1146 148.41 (+0.97)          Amanda Seyfried (ASEYF) 100 30.35 (+0.22)          Wicked: For Good $315M Blockbust (WCKD2.BW) 25000 7.03 (+0.56)          Eternity (ETERN) 1000 14.13 (-0.71)          Eternity (ETERN) 4000 14.13 (-0.71)          Avatar: Fire and Ash - Opening W (AVAT3.OW) 10000 116.80 (-5.03)          My Ex-Friend's Wedding (MEXFW) 28000 10.84 (-0.09)          My Ex-Friend's Wedding (MEXFW) 3000 10.84 (-0.09)          James Gunn (JGUNN) 1000 212.58 (-1.02)          Avengers: Secret Wars (AVNG6) 2000 461.17 (+1.01)          The Strangers: Chapter 3 (STRN5) 1000 8.44 (+0.01)          Cliffhanger (CLFHN) 4000 9.80 (0.00)          Spaceballs 2 (SPCB2) 100 111.63 (+0.88)          Hoppers (HOPPR) 3000 140.88 (+1.01)          Spider-Man: Brand New Day (SPID9) 100 421.28 (+1.00)          I Can Only Imagine 2 (ICOI2) 3000 38.04 (-0.15)          Star Wars: Starfighter (SWAR4) 100 233.06 (+1.17)          Avengers: Secret Wars (AVNG6) 100 461.17 (+1.01)