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The changing nature of Thursday previews complicates comping OW to second weekend drops. RogerMore's database lists AVATR's R previews. . .

Posted by: second gary (a.k.a 80181597) on Dec 27, 10:02 in response to Antibody's post The real *large* complicating factor is STAR7 dropped 38%...

... as 3.7M.  You could argue for calculating STAR7's second weekend drop at somewhere around 25%, i.e. (OW - previews) / second weekend.  But I brought AVATR as a "floor comp," because it was the biggest grossing December holiday performer we've had.  

Warning: this post contains an "if / then" statement on the STAR7 delist. second gary Dec 27, 09:31

The real *large* complicating factor is STAR7 dropped 38% while AVATR only dropped 1.8%. {nm} Antibody Dec 27, 09:53

If I remember correctly, there was a big snowstorm that hit the northeast during Avatar's first weekend. {nm} fourstars Dec 27, 10:00

AVATR was a word of mouth smash. It had bad buzz going into opening weekend. There was no fanbase to frontload opening weekend. {nm} Antibody Dec 27, 10:08

yep. a bunch of people who planned to go opening weekend couldn't do so and went the following weekend. {nm} CSBD Dec 27, 10:11

Have an excuse for its 9.4% drop from weekend 2 to weekend 3? {nm} benz0 Dec 27, 14:16

'cause people liked it a lot? why do you need an excuse? {nm} CSBD Dec 27, 18:31

+1 {nm} RamsFan2004 Dec 27, 19:20

The changing nature of Thursday previews complicates comping OW to second weekend drops. RogerMore's database lists AVATR's R previews. . . second gary Dec 27, 10:02

The completely original AVATR is a "ceiling comp" for the sequel STAR7 with a built-in fanbase. {nm} Antibody Dec 27, 10:03

I saw it this afternoon, and its ticketholder line-up (in suburban Toronto) had the strangest demographic mix I've ever seen. second gary Dec 27, 16:49

Based on this weekend's performance (stellar as it is), I am moving DOWN my delist calculation for STAR7. (no if / then clauses) Rocket123 aka PVL Admin Dec 27, 09:54

pretty cosistant over the weekend. all right around 50m. That % drop was off monster numbers. {nm} tradermark Dec 27, 09:56

Still over 800 delist based on my own calculations xiayun Dec 27, 10:07

I'm thinking delist would go around 830M. {nm} Filmstardust Dec 27, 12:52

I'm with you and xiayun, low 800's MattW Dec 27, 13:31

Weekdays this week will be much higher than 25 per day xiayun Dec 27, 15:13





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Drop (DROP) 149995 24.70 (+1.83)          The Convert (CNVRT) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Christmas Eve in Miller's Point (CEIMP) 3000 2.00 (0.00)          Christmas Eve in Miller's Point (CEIMP) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Ready or Not 2 (RONO2) 3000 16.37 (+0.62)          Armor Wars (ARMWR) 150000 67.36 (-0.10)          The Incredible Hulk 2 (THLK2) 150000 50.13 (+1.18)          The Wedding Banquet (TWEDB) 3000 10.88 (+1.77)          Christmas Eve in Miller's Point (CEIMP) 5000 2.00 (0.00)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2.BW) 5000 11.87 (+0.01)          Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire $100 (GHST5.BW) 5000 10.94 (+0.01)          Kung Fu Panda 4 $155M Blockbuste (PAND4.BW) 5000 16.19 (+0.30)          Dune: Part Two $235M Blockbuster (DUNE2.BW) 5000 21.81 (+0.13)          I Know What You Did Last Summer (IKNO4) 150000 23.30 (+0.65)          I Know What You Did Last Summer (IKNO4) 3000 23.30 (+0.65)          Bad Boys: Ride or Die (BADB4) 102821 136.08 (-1.27)          IF (IMGNF) 75000 129.31 (-5.61)          Kingdom of the Planet of the Ape (APES4) 3000 145.56 (-1.01)          The Fall Guy (FALGY) 5000 82.42 (-1.49)          Challengers (CHALN) 3000 43.84 (-0.56)          In a Violent Nature (IAVNT) 150000 5.47 (+0.85)          The Convert (CNVRT) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Christmas Eve in Miller's Point (CEIMP) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          The Convert (CNVRT) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Christmas Eve in Miller's Point (CEIMP) 149996 2.00 (0.00)          Challengers (CHALN) 149999 43.84 (-0.56)          Bonhoeffer (BNHFR) 150000 8.79 (0.00)          My Penguin Friend (TPATF) 150000 4.79 (+0.92)          Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (MMAX5) 25000 144.71 (-0.88)          Mother Mary (MMARY) 1000 6.69 (-0.02)          Apartment 7A (APT7A) 5000 7.70 (-0.01)          Face/Off 2 (FCOF2) 3000 20.40 (0.00)          The Convert (CNVRT) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          The Mandalorian & Grogu (SWAR3) 2000 217.01 (+0.24)          Christmas Eve in Miller's Point (CEIMP) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (SONC3) 1000 139.19 (+0.55)          Elevation (ELVTN) 149999 14.05 (+2.39)          Elevation (ELVTN) 149996 14.05 (+2.39)          Conclave (CNCLV) 9000 4.47 (0.00)          Christmas Eve in Miller's Point (CEIMP) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Presence (PRSNC) 1000 15.96 (-0.02)          I am Legend 2 (LEGN2) 149999 63.24 (+0.91)          I am Legend 2 (LEGN2) 149997 63.24 (+0.91)          Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy (BJON4) 5000 8.32 (0.00)          Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (MMAX5) 25000 144.71 (-0.88)          The Garfield Movie (GRFLD) 50000 90.94 (-0.61)          In a Violent Nature (IAVNT) 150000 5.47 (+0.85)          In a Violent Nature (IAVNT) 150000 5.47 (+0.85)          Avatar 3 (AVAT3) 1001 418.65 (-0.66)          Moana 2 (MOAN2) 1752 179.31 (+0.47)