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The changing nature of Thursday previews complicates comping OW to second weekend drops. RogerMore's database lists AVATR's R previews. . .

Posted by: second gary (a.k.a 80181597) on Dec 27, 10:02 in response to Antibody's post The real *large* complicating factor is STAR7 dropped 38%...

... as 3.7M.  You could argue for calculating STAR7's second weekend drop at somewhere around 25%, i.e. (OW - previews) / second weekend.  But I brought AVATR as a "floor comp," because it was the biggest grossing December holiday performer we've had.  

Warning: this post contains an "if / then" statement on the STAR7 delist. second gary Dec 27, 09:31

The real *large* complicating factor is STAR7 dropped 38% while AVATR only dropped 1.8%. {nm} Antibody Dec 27, 09:53

If I remember correctly, there was a big snowstorm that hit the northeast during Avatar's first weekend. {nm} fourstars Dec 27, 10:00

AVATR was a word of mouth smash. It had bad buzz going into opening weekend. There was no fanbase to frontload opening weekend. {nm} Antibody Dec 27, 10:08

yep. a bunch of people who planned to go opening weekend couldn't do so and went the following weekend. {nm} CSBD Dec 27, 10:11

Have an excuse for its 9.4% drop from weekend 2 to weekend 3? {nm} benz0 Dec 27, 14:16

'cause people liked it a lot? why do you need an excuse? {nm} CSBD Dec 27, 18:31

+1 {nm} RamsFan2004 Dec 27, 19:20

The changing nature of Thursday previews complicates comping OW to second weekend drops. RogerMore's database lists AVATR's R previews. . . second gary Dec 27, 10:02

The completely original AVATR is a "ceiling comp" for the sequel STAR7 with a built-in fanbase. {nm} Antibody Dec 27, 10:03

I saw it this afternoon, and its ticketholder line-up (in suburban Toronto) had the strangest demographic mix I've ever seen. second gary Dec 27, 16:49

Based on this weekend's performance (stellar as it is), I am moving DOWN my delist calculation for STAR7. (no if / then clauses) Rocket123 aka PVL Admin Dec 27, 09:54

pretty cosistant over the weekend. all right around 50m. That % drop was off monster numbers. {nm} tradermark Dec 27, 09:56

Still over 800 delist based on my own calculations xiayun Dec 27, 10:07

I'm thinking delist would go around 830M. {nm} Filmstardust Dec 27, 12:52

I'm with you and xiayun, low 800's MattW Dec 27, 13:31

Weekdays this week will be much higher than 25 per day xiayun Dec 27, 15:13





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Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) 5 30.05 (-0.03)          Murder, She Wrote (MURSW) 35929 29.07 (0.00)          A Place In Hell (APHEL) 115149 6.66 (-1.05)          Insidious: Out of the Further (NSID6) 150000 40.98 (+0.30)          How to Train Your Dragon 2 (HTTY2) 5519 189.23 (-0.32)          Gladys aka Weapons prequel (WEPN2) 150000 56.43 (-0.86)          The Simpsons Movie 2 (SIMP2) 44797 167.78 (+0.22)          Gambino (GMBNO) 64085 11.48 (+0.74)          Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Ve (ASPD3) 46987 231.99 (+0.15)          Ramayana (RAMAY) 20000 13.58 (+0.19)          Helldivers (HELDV) 91099 107.99 (+0.75)          Gambino (GMBNO) 5000 11.48 (+0.74)          Gambino (GMBNO) 25000 11.48 (+0.74)          Cold War 1994 (CWAR3) 150000 0.99 (-0.01)          The Bourne Dilemma (BORN6) 74968 81.40 (+0.12)          Gladys aka Weapons prequel (WEPN2) 150000 56.43 (-0.86)          Be My Baby (BMYBB) 1 13.06 (-0.74)          Jackass 5 (JCKA6) 121827 50.79 (+0.07)          Be My Baby (BMYBB) 30000 13.06 (-0.74)          Hadestown: The Musical (HDSTW) 150000 6.32 (+0.96)          Jennifer's Body 2 (JBOD2) 1 13.77 (-0.44)          The Third Parent (T3RDP) 130000 5.94 (+0.62)          Jennifer's Body 2 (JBOD2) 30000 13.77 (-0.44)          A Place In Hell (APHEL) 150000 6.66 (-1.05)          Miami Vice (MIVIC) 273 106.79 (-0.11)          Lords of War (LRDW2) 25000 8.10 (+0.81)          Mortal Kombat II (MKMB2) 14710 91.54 (-0.11)          Shiver (SHVER) 22035 83.14 (+0.03)          Ice Cream Man (ICREM) 25000 14.31 (+0.17)          Jennifer's Body 2 (JBOD2) 20000 13.77 (-0.44)          Insidious: Out of the Further (NSID6) 75000 40.98 (+0.30)          Be My Baby (BMYBB) 20000 13.06 (-0.74)          Runner (RUNNR) 150000 10.92 (-0.47)          Kate McKinnon (KAMCK) 25000 85.73 (0.00)          Jennifer's Body 2 (JBOD2) 20000 13.77 (-0.44)          Be My Baby (BMYBB) 20000 13.06 (-0.74)          Hadestown: The Musical (HDSTW) 25000 6.32 (+0.96)          Lords of War (LRDW2) 25000 8.10 (+0.81)          Gambino (GMBNO) 25000 11.48 (+0.74)          Be My Baby (BMYBB) 20000 13.06 (-0.74)          Jennifer's Body 2 (JBOD2) 20000 13.77 (-0.44)          Lords of War (LRDW2) 150000 8.10 (+0.81)          Gladys aka Weapons prequel (WEPN2) 150000 56.43 (-0.86)          Lords of War (LRDW2) 500 8.10 (+0.81)          Hadestown: The Musical (HDSTW) 1000 6.32 (+0.96)          Logan's Run (LOGAN) 3000 3.41 (0.00)          Escape From New York (ESCNY) 150000 5.26 (+0.39)          Jennifer's Body 2 (JBOD2) 1000 13.77 (-0.44)          Gambino (GMBNO) 150000 11.48 (+0.74)          Runner (RUNNR) 150000 10.92 (-0.47)