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The changing nature of Thursday previews complicates comping OW to second weekend drops. RogerMore's database lists AVATR's R previews. . .

Posted by: second gary (a.k.a 80181597) on Dec 27, 10:02 in response to Antibody's post The real *large* complicating factor is STAR7 dropped 38%...

... as 3.7M.  You could argue for calculating STAR7's second weekend drop at somewhere around 25%, i.e. (OW - previews) / second weekend.  But I brought AVATR as a "floor comp," because it was the biggest grossing December holiday performer we've had.  

Warning: this post contains an "if / then" statement on the STAR7 delist. second gary Dec 27, 09:31

The real *large* complicating factor is STAR7 dropped 38% while AVATR only dropped 1.8%. {nm} Antibody Dec 27, 09:53

If I remember correctly, there was a big snowstorm that hit the northeast during Avatar's first weekend. {nm} fourstars Dec 27, 10:00

AVATR was a word of mouth smash. It had bad buzz going into opening weekend. There was no fanbase to frontload opening weekend. {nm} Antibody Dec 27, 10:08

yep. a bunch of people who planned to go opening weekend couldn't do so and went the following weekend. {nm} CSBD Dec 27, 10:11

Have an excuse for its 9.4% drop from weekend 2 to weekend 3? {nm} benz0 Dec 27, 14:16

'cause people liked it a lot? why do you need an excuse? {nm} CSBD Dec 27, 18:31

+1 {nm} RamsFan2004 Dec 27, 19:20

The changing nature of Thursday previews complicates comping OW to second weekend drops. RogerMore's database lists AVATR's R previews. . . second gary Dec 27, 10:02

The completely original AVATR is a "ceiling comp" for the sequel STAR7 with a built-in fanbase. {nm} Antibody Dec 27, 10:03

I saw it this afternoon, and its ticketholder line-up (in suburban Toronto) had the strangest demographic mix I've ever seen. second gary Dec 27, 16:49

Based on this weekend's performance (stellar as it is), I am moving DOWN my delist calculation for STAR7. (no if / then clauses) Rocket123 aka PVL Admin Dec 27, 09:54

pretty cosistant over the weekend. all right around 50m. That % drop was off monster numbers. {nm} tradermark Dec 27, 09:56

Still over 800 delist based on my own calculations xiayun Dec 27, 10:07

I'm thinking delist would go around 830M. {nm} Filmstardust Dec 27, 12:52

I'm with you and xiayun, low 800's MattW Dec 27, 13:31

Weekdays this week will be much higher than 25 per day xiayun Dec 27, 15:13





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Minions & Monsters (MNIO3) 150000 303.49 (-1.52)          Minions & Monsters (MNIO3) 150000 303.49 (-1.52)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 150000 139.09 (-3.60)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 150000 139.09 (-3.60)          Zero A.D. aka Bethlehem (BTLHM) 1 25.78 (-0.25)          Zero A.D. aka Bethlehem (BTLHM) 1 25.78 (-0.25)          Top Gun 3 (TOPG3) 1 203.85 (-1.06)          Top Gun 3 (TOPG3) 1 203.85 (-1.06)          Moana (MOAN1) 150000 232.31 (-2.60)          Gravity Rush (GRVTR) 1 8.11 (-0.02)          Gravity Rush (GRVTR) 1 8.11 (-0.02)          Untitled A24 Horror Film aka Unt (UASTE) 150000 20.52 (+0.52)          Unidentified (UNIDF) 1 0.24 (-0.02)          Unidentified (UNIDF) 1 0.24 (-0.02)          Disclosure Day (SKIES) 150000 116.58 (-1.18)          The Death of Robin Hood (TDORH) 150000 14.08 (-2.31)          The Death of Robin Hood (TDORH) 150000 14.08 (-2.31)          Toy Story 5 (TOYS5) 21277 423.30 (+8.28)          Untitled A24 Horror Film aka Unt (UASTE) 150000 20.52 (+0.52)          Jackass: Best and Last (JCKA6) 50000 40.62 (-0.91)          Untitled A24 Horror Film aka Unt (UASTE) 150000 20.52 (+0.52)          Young Washington H$10 Put (YWASH.PU) 25000 1.41 (-0.18)          Young Washington H$10 Put (YWASH.PU) 25000 1.41 (-0.18)          Romy & Michelle 2 (ROMY2) 150000 3.96 (+0.01)          Untitled A24 Horror Film aka Unt (UASTE) 150000 20.52 (+0.52)          Mackenzie Foy (MFOY) 25000 59.65 (-0.16)          Untitled A24 Horror Film aka Unt (UASTE) 10000 20.52 (+0.52)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 150000 139.09 (-3.60)          The Comebacker (CMBAC) 150000 26.42 (-1.93)          The Comebacker (CMBAC) 150000 26.42 (-1.93)          Untitled A24 Horror Film aka Unt (UASTE) 150000 20.52 (+0.52)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 150000 139.09 (-3.60)          Simon Pegg (SPEGG) 25000 140.27 (-0.60)          Simon Pegg (SPEGG) 20000 140.27 (-0.60)          The Comebacker (CMBAC) 150000 26.42 (-1.93)          Samuel L. Jackson (SLJAC) 25000 56.96 (+0.13)          Samuel L. Jackson (SLJAC) 20000 56.96 (+0.13)          Sing 3 (SING3) 150000 55.12 (+2.43)          The Comebacker (CMBAC) 150000 26.42 (-1.93)          The Comebacker (CMBAC) 150000 26.42 (-1.93)          Polly Pocket (POLYP) 150000 18.84 (-0.58)          Untitled A24 Horror Film aka Unt (UASTE) 150000 20.52 (+0.52)          Artificial (AIFIC) 150000 12.77 (-3.42)          Snoop Dogg (SDOGG) 5000 36.80 (+0.15)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 20 139.09 (-3.60)          The Comedy Hour (COMDH) 2550 2.49 (0.00)          Fortitude (FRTUD) 100000 9.94 (-2.58)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 20 139.09 (-3.60)          Untitled A24 Horror Film aka Unt (UASTE) 50000 20.52 (+0.52)          Moana (MOAN1) 129 232.31 (-2.60)