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The changing nature of Thursday previews complicates comping OW to second weekend drops. RogerMore's database lists AVATR's R previews. . .

Posted by: second gary (a.k.a 80181597) on Dec 27, 10:02 in response to Antibody's post The real *large* complicating factor is STAR7 dropped 38%...

... as 3.7M.  You could argue for calculating STAR7's second weekend drop at somewhere around 25%, i.e. (OW - previews) / second weekend.  But I brought AVATR as a "floor comp," because it was the biggest grossing December holiday performer we've had.  

Warning: this post contains an "if / then" statement on the STAR7 delist. second gary Dec 27, 09:31

The real *large* complicating factor is STAR7 dropped 38% while AVATR only dropped 1.8%. {nm} Antibody Dec 27, 09:53

If I remember correctly, there was a big snowstorm that hit the northeast during Avatar's first weekend. {nm} fourstars Dec 27, 10:00

AVATR was a word of mouth smash. It had bad buzz going into opening weekend. There was no fanbase to frontload opening weekend. {nm} Antibody Dec 27, 10:08

yep. a bunch of people who planned to go opening weekend couldn't do so and went the following weekend. {nm} CSBD Dec 27, 10:11

Have an excuse for its 9.4% drop from weekend 2 to weekend 3? {nm} benz0 Dec 27, 14:16

'cause people liked it a lot? why do you need an excuse? {nm} CSBD Dec 27, 18:31

+1 {nm} RamsFan2004 Dec 27, 19:20

The changing nature of Thursday previews complicates comping OW to second weekend drops. RogerMore's database lists AVATR's R previews. . . second gary Dec 27, 10:02

The completely original AVATR is a "ceiling comp" for the sequel STAR7 with a built-in fanbase. {nm} Antibody Dec 27, 10:03

I saw it this afternoon, and its ticketholder line-up (in suburban Toronto) had the strangest demographic mix I've ever seen. second gary Dec 27, 16:49

Based on this weekend's performance (stellar as it is), I am moving DOWN my delist calculation for STAR7. (no if / then clauses) Rocket123 aka PVL Admin Dec 27, 09:54

pretty cosistant over the weekend. all right around 50m. That % drop was off monster numbers. {nm} tradermark Dec 27, 09:56

Still over 800 delist based on my own calculations xiayun Dec 27, 10:07

I'm thinking delist would go around 830M. {nm} Filmstardust Dec 27, 12:52

I'm with you and xiayun, low 800's MattW Dec 27, 13:31

Weekdays this week will be much higher than 25 per day xiayun Dec 27, 15:13





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Gatto (GATTO) 2000 111.02 (+0.50)          The Conjuring: First Communion (CNJU5) 2000 82.69 (-0.23)          What Happens At Night (WHANT) 30000 34.57 (+0.10)          Shiver (SHVER) 149999 64.27 (+6.87)          The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 150000 16.91 (-1.09)          Starship Troopers (STRPR) 5 39.90 (-0.05)          Avengers: Secret Wars (AVNG6) 4053 472.89 (+0.37)          The Beatles - A Four-Film Cinema (BEAT1) 1 113.15 (+0.44)          Elden Ring (ELDEN) 37500 40.00 (+0.08)          The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 50000 16.91 (-1.09)          The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 50000 16.91 (-1.09)          Frozen III (FROZ3) 5000 311.73 (+1.21)          The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 50000 16.91 (-1.09)          Iron Lung (IRONL) 1 24.34 (+0.70)          The Drama (TDRAM) 59000 22.26 (+0.02)          I Love Boosters (ILBOS) 13000 11.78 (-0.05)          A Minecraft Movie II (MINE2) 5000 308.36 (+0.20)          Blade (BLAD1) 2665 26.66 (-0.08)          Blade (BLAD1) 2707 26.66 (-0.08)          Cry to Heaven (CRYTH) 1000 14.81 (+0.02)          Bluey the Movie (BLUEY) 50000 133.81 (+0.42)          Shrek 5 (SHRK5) 80 231.93 (-0.04)          Big Thunder Mountain (BTMTN) 50000 20.18 (-0.04)          I Love Boosters (ILBOS) 36000 11.78 (-0.05)          Bermuda (BTRIA) 20000 0.88 (0.00)          The Wild Robot 2 (TWRB2) 37500 40.66 (+0.60)          EPiC: Elvis Presley in Concert (EPICC) 3000 10.81 (-0.03)          Bear Country (BEARC) 50000 9.91 (-0.28)          Star Wars: Dawn of the Jedi (STRW1) 4000 108.93 (-1.66)          Man of Tomorrow (SPMOT) 5000 266.91 (+0.20)          Bag Man (BAGMN) 20000 0.27 (0.00)          Bad Lieutenant: Tokyo (BADLT) 20000 2.97 (+0.01)          Bad Fairies (BFAIR) 50000 44.18 (-0.05)          Avengers: Secret Wars (AVNG6) 25000 472.89 (+0.37)          Attack of the 50 Foot Woman (A50FW) 50000 44.55 (-0.07)          Solo Mio (SOLOM) 979 9.80 (-0.84)          Assassination (ASSNT) 50000 8.03 (-0.05)          Archangel (ARCNG) 50000 16.95 (+0.05)          Anxious People (ANXPE) 50000 10.59 (-0.04)          Solo Mio (SOLOM) 1065 9.80 (-0.84)          The Housekeeper (HSKPR) 150000 4.94 (+1.73)          The Housekeeper (HSKPR) 150000 4.94 (+1.73)          Stray Kids: The dominATE Experie (SKTDE) 150000 3.73 (-0.19)          The Strangers: Chapter 3 (STRN5) 50000 11.50 (-1.83)          Stray Kids: The dominATE Experie (SKTDE) 3 3.73 (-0.19)          Sing 3 (SING3) 2 55.70 (-0.32)          Sing 3 (SING3) 2 55.70 (-0.32)          Final Destination 7 (FDES7) 1 58.00 (-0.47)          Final Destination 7 (FDES7) 1 58.00 (-0.47)          The Simpsons Movie 2 (SIMP2) 3 167.36 (-0.49)