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I think that's more a reflection of the predictors than the box office. Coming into 2019 the summer looked stacked, and that incentivised
boosters to make bigger predictions. For example, remember when people were saying DPIKA was sure to make $250M? In retrospect, that audience was never there.
Here's my list of the movies that performed below expectations:
PETS2 - unwanted sequel to surprise success
DPIKA - did OK, just didn't live up to outlandish forecast
GODZ2 - I'm surprised anyone thought this would succeed, GODZL and SKULN were terrible
MIB4 - unasked-for franchise reboot
SHAF2 - unasked-for fanchise reboot
XMEN7 - in an un-loved franchise that everyone expected to be bad
ANGR2 - no one cares about Angry Birds any more
I don't think any of these were a real sprprise (except for how poorly SHAF2 did), it's more that predictors are falling into common mistakes like buying into hype about mvoies for audiences they don't understand, basing predictions on past performance, eg "The last PETS movie made $360M, so the sequel must be good for at least $200M" (and if they did say 'PETS2 = $150M, everyone'd say 'that's crazy, PETS made $360M') and missing out on franchise fatigue.
Looking at annual numbers between 2017, 2018, 2019. 2019 should beat 2017 and using straight comparisons may beat 2018. Aug 25, 09:59
to your point (no SW, no Avengers) i have 6 titles that gross over $400m domestic in the 2019 calendar. 2020, I have one Aug 25, 10:15
adding RAYA into 2020 gets my forecast to 7.5% down for 2020 v 2019 {nm} Aug 25, 10:50
if only there were a way to take some chances on other non-IP projects to pick up the potential slack {nm} Aug 25, 10:55
Isn't that illegal now? {nm} Aug 25, 12:12
only if you work for Disney {nm} Aug 25, 14:37
Which immediately brings to mind 'Demolition Man' and Taco Bell.... {nm} Aug 25, 18:30
2020 will have endless this is the end for movie theaters click bait articles. VictorY will be losing his mind. Aug 25, 11:07
...and to think I know people who had 2019 at 20+% over 2018, if not higher...so underwhelming. {nm} Aug 25, 21:08
I think that's more a reflection of the predictors than the box office. Coming into 2019 the summer looked stacked, and that incentivised Aug 26, 07:20
Good stuff. RM. I just posted my take also and agree with many of your points. {nm} Aug 26, 09:54
