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i just did my first forecast for 2020 and its not pretty. It's pretty rough because its filled with placeholders but its 9 points down v '19 {nm}

Posted by: Moviesnob on Aug 25, 10:09 in response to Catzan's post Looking at annual numbers between 2017, 2018, 2019. 2019...

Looking at annual numbers between 2017, 2018, 2019. 2019 should beat 2017 and using straight comparisons may beat 2018. Catzan Aug 25, 09:59

i just did my first forecast for 2020 and its not pretty. It's pretty rough because its filled with placeholders but its 9 points down v '19 Moviesnob Aug 25, 10:09

to your point (no SW, no Avengers) i have 6 titles that gross over $400m domestic in the 2019 calendar. 2020, I have one Moviesnob Aug 25, 10:15

Not just no Avengers/Star Wars. 2020 Disney remakes are Mulan and that's it, while the Iger retirement year had Lion King, Aladdin, Dumbo RogerMore Aug 25, 10:29

adding RAYA into 2020 gets my forecast to 7.5% down for 2020 v 2019 {nm} Moviesnob Aug 25, 10:50

if only there were a way to take some chances on other non-IP projects to pick up the potential slack {nm} professor zovek Aug 25, 10:55

Isn't that illegal now? {nm} DTravel Aug 25, 12:12

only if you work for Disney {nm} RazorHawk Aug 25, 14:37

Which immediately brings to mind 'Demolition Man' and Taco Bell.... {nm} DTravel Aug 25, 18:30

2020 will have endless this is the end for movie theaters click bait articles. VictorY will be losing his mind. jamesbik333 Aug 25, 11:07

I'm not worried about VictorY. He wouldn't be able to keep losing his mind so much if he was very good at finding it again afterwards. {nm} DTravel Aug 25, 12:10

...and to think I know people who had 2019 at 20+% over 2018, if not higher...so underwhelming. {nm} LaForza Aug 25, 21:08

I think that's more a reflection of the predictors than the box office. Coming into 2019 the summer looked stacked, and that incentivised RogerMore Aug 26, 07:20

Good stuff. RM. I just posted my take also and agree with many of your points. {nm} VictorY Aug 26, 09:54





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Aladdin 2 (ALAD2) 1000 26.93 (-0.03)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 (5NAF2) 149999 120.21 (+0.66)          A Minecraft Movie II (MINE2) 10000 292.16 (-0.53)          The Last Witch Hunter 2 (TLWH2) 150000 17.95 (-0.35)          Primetime (PRMTM) 37000 16.43 (+0.05)          Aladdin 2 (ALAD2) 1000 26.93 (-0.03)          David (DAVID) 150000 76.60 (-0.98)          Practical Magic 2 (PRAC2) 25000 48.52 (+0.12)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4) 150000 64.56 (-1.83)          Primetime (PRMTM) 1000 16.43 (+0.05)          The Housemaid (HMAID) 150000 60.64 (-2.58)          Split Fiction (SPFIC) 150000 41.26 (-5.86)          The Legend of Aang: The Last Air (ATLA1) 38000 33.98 (+0.05)          The Young People (TYPEP) 1001 19.11 (0.00)          The Legend of Zelda (ZELDA) 30 201.98 (+0.01)          Scream 7 (SCRM7) 10 76.83 (-0.26)          I Want Your Sex (IWYSX) 10000 4.66 (-0.05)          Steve Buscemi (SBUSC) 25000 51.27 (+0.16)          Scream 7 (SCRM7) 70 76.83 (-0.26)          Painter (PANTR) 50000 14.31 (-0.08)          Shelter (SELTR) 38000 22.39 (-0.08)          Love is Not the Answer (LINTA) 150000 5.00 (0.00)          Kieran Culkin (KCULK) 25000 11.56 (-0.20)          A Great Aawkening (AGAWK) 150000 10.00 (0.00)          The Mandalorian and Grogu (SWAR3) 25 254.19 (+0.45)          Jim Parsons (JPARS) 25000 67.42 (+0.25)          Armor Wars (ARMWR) 50000 35.24 (-0.11)          Terrifier 4 (TERF4) 38000 23.49 (+0.03)          Daveed Diggs (DDIGG) 25000 87.47 (-0.25)          Love is Not the Answer (LINTA) 150000 5.00 (0.00)          The Invite (TINVT) 2000 10.54 (-0.32)          Dracula - A Love Tale (DRALT) 120000 7.34 (+0.74)          Love is Not the Answer (LINTA) 150000 5.00 (0.00)          Frozen III (FROZ3) 10000 302.06 (+1.91)          A Great Aawkening (AGAWK) 150000 10.00 (0.00)          Baby Driver 2 (BDRV2) 36000 2.98 (-0.01)          The Wrecking Crew (WCREW) 150000 15.25 (-0.95)          Baby Driver 2 (BDRV2) 39000 2.98 (-0.01)          Split Fiction (SPFIC) 100000 41.26 (-5.86)          Peaked (PEAKD) 150000 7.71 (-0.29)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.OW) 50000 18.70 (-0.84)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.OW) 100000 18.70 (-0.84)          Hokum (HOKUM) 25000 8.89 (+0.11)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (MARI2) 500 474.62 (+0.16)          Love is Not the Answer (LINTA) 150000 5.00 (0.00)          A Great Aawkening (AGAWK) 150000 10.00 (0.00)          Avatar: Fire and Ash H$125 Call (AVAT3.CA) 25000 2.73 (-0.57)          The Invite (TINVT) 150000 10.54 (-0.32)          The Moment (MOMNT) 150000 11.38 (+0.47)          Avatar: Fire and Ash - Opening W (AVAT3.OW) 50000 117.75 (-4.08)