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i just did my first forecast for 2020 and its not pretty. It's pretty rough because its filled with placeholders but its 9 points down v '19 {nm}

Posted by: Moviesnob on Aug 25, 10:09 in response to Catzan's post Looking at annual numbers between 2017, 2018, 2019. 2019...

Looking at annual numbers between 2017, 2018, 2019. 2019 should beat 2017 and using straight comparisons may beat 2018. Catzan Aug 25, 09:59

i just did my first forecast for 2020 and its not pretty. It's pretty rough because its filled with placeholders but its 9 points down v '19 Moviesnob Aug 25, 10:09

to your point (no SW, no Avengers) i have 6 titles that gross over $400m domestic in the 2019 calendar. 2020, I have one Moviesnob Aug 25, 10:15

Not just no Avengers/Star Wars. 2020 Disney remakes are Mulan and that's it, while the Iger retirement year had Lion King, Aladdin, Dumbo RogerMore Aug 25, 10:29

adding RAYA into 2020 gets my forecast to 7.5% down for 2020 v 2019 {nm} Moviesnob Aug 25, 10:50

if only there were a way to take some chances on other non-IP projects to pick up the potential slack {nm} professor zovek Aug 25, 10:55

Isn't that illegal now? {nm} DTravel Aug 25, 12:12

only if you work for Disney {nm} RazorHawk Aug 25, 14:37

Which immediately brings to mind 'Demolition Man' and Taco Bell.... {nm} DTravel Aug 25, 18:30

2020 will have endless this is the end for movie theaters click bait articles. VictorY will be losing his mind. jamesbik333 Aug 25, 11:07

I'm not worried about VictorY. He wouldn't be able to keep losing his mind so much if he was very good at finding it again afterwards. {nm} DTravel Aug 25, 12:10

...and to think I know people who had 2019 at 20+% over 2018, if not higher...so underwhelming. {nm} LaForza Aug 25, 21:08

I think that's more a reflection of the predictors than the box office. Coming into 2019 the summer looked stacked, and that incentivised RogerMore Aug 26, 07:20

Good stuff. RM. I just posted my take also and agree with many of your points. {nm} VictorY Aug 26, 09:54





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Jehanne d'Arc (JDARC) 150000 28.23 (+0.61)          Animal Farm (AFARM) 124922 7.18 (-0.13)          Over Your Dead Body (TETRP) 100000 3.62 (-0.11)          Annabelle Wallis (AWALL) 25000 41.53 (-0.16)          Cliffhanger (CLFHN) 80000 7.56 (0.00)          Mother Mary (MMARY) 6140 4.51 (0.00)          X-Men aka Mutants (XMEN8) 215 163.06 (-0.11)          Masters of the Universe (HEMAN) 15561 88.50 (+0.10)          Panda Plan 2: The Magical Tribe (PPLA2) 150000 0.44 (0.00)          Panda Plan 2: The Magical Tribe (PPLA2) 10000 0.44 (0.00)          The Christophers (CHRIS) 45056 3.99 (-0.02)          The Odyssey (ODYSE) 250 295.13 (+2.99)          Chris Pratt (CPRAT) 25000 169.10 (+0.50)          Toy Story 5 (TOYS5) 400 364.17 (+0.50)          Clayface (CLAYF) 20 86.56 (+0.43)          Avengers: Doomsday (AVNG5) 800 545.04 (-0.23)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie $39 (MARI2.BW) 900 11.98 (+0.15)          Wagner Moura (WMOUR) 25000 54.29 (+0.16)          Toy Story 5 (TOYS5) 100000 364.17 (+0.50)          Backrooms (BACRM) 300 40.17 (+0.02)          Zendaya (ZENDA) 800 121.41 (+0.01)          White Elephant (WELEP) 4000 19.36 (+1.30)          How To Rob A Bank (HTRAB) 2 48.27 (+0.05)          Hit Me Hard And Soft: The Tour (HMHAS) 1000 24.54 (-0.22)          Toy Story 5 (TOYS5) 30 364.17 (+0.50)          The Odyssey (ODYSE) 150000 295.13 (+2.99)          The Odyssey (ODYSE) 150000 295.13 (+2.99)          Tom Holland (TOHOL) 800 135.57 (+0.01)          Good People Bad Things (GPBT) 8888 14.16 (-0.12)          Toy Story 5 (TOYS5) 30 364.17 (+0.50)          Robert Downey Jr. (RDOWN) 800 225.95 (+0.01)          Toy Story 5 (TOYS5) 400 364.17 (+0.50)          Toy Story 5 (TOYS5) 130 364.17 (+0.50)          Fleur (FLEUR) 150 7.41 (+0.06)          White Elephant (WELEP) 1 19.36 (+1.30)          Spider-Man: Brand New Day (SPID9) 800 421.45 (+0.37)          The Catch (TCATC) 100 60.41 (+2.59)          Minions & Monsters (MNIO3) 1 325.46 (+0.25)          April X (APRLX) 150000 1.80 (-0.20)          The Horror Fund X (SPOOK) 20000 26.21 (-0.03)          Hokum (HOKUM) 1 17.42 (-0.12)          Minions & Monsters (MNIO3) 500 325.46 (+0.25)          White Elephant (WELEP) 150000 19.36 (+1.30)          Robert Pattinson (RPATT) 1000 80.68 (+0.26)          Passenger (PSNGR) 149999 30.08 (+1.47)          Zendaya (ZENDA) 200 121.41 (+0.01)          The Thomas Crown Affair (TTCAF) 150000 43.12 (-0.02)          The Sheep Detectives H$15 Put (3BAGF.PU) 2500 1.94 (+0.21)          White Elephant (WELEP) 1 19.36 (+1.30)          Artificial (AIFIC) 150000 17.92 (-0.20)