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i just did my first forecast for 2020 and its not pretty. It's pretty rough because its filled with placeholders but its 9 points down v '19 {nm}

Posted by: Moviesnob on Aug 25, 10:09 in response to Catzan's post Looking at annual numbers between 2017, 2018, 2019. 2019...

Looking at annual numbers between 2017, 2018, 2019. 2019 should beat 2017 and using straight comparisons may beat 2018. Catzan Aug 25, 09:59

i just did my first forecast for 2020 and its not pretty. It's pretty rough because its filled with placeholders but its 9 points down v '19 Moviesnob Aug 25, 10:09

to your point (no SW, no Avengers) i have 6 titles that gross over $400m domestic in the 2019 calendar. 2020, I have one Moviesnob Aug 25, 10:15

Not just no Avengers/Star Wars. 2020 Disney remakes are Mulan and that's it, while the Iger retirement year had Lion King, Aladdin, Dumbo RogerMore Aug 25, 10:29

adding RAYA into 2020 gets my forecast to 7.5% down for 2020 v 2019 {nm} Moviesnob Aug 25, 10:50

if only there were a way to take some chances on other non-IP projects to pick up the potential slack {nm} professor zovek Aug 25, 10:55

Isn't that illegal now? {nm} DTravel Aug 25, 12:12

only if you work for Disney {nm} RazorHawk Aug 25, 14:37

Which immediately brings to mind 'Demolition Man' and Taco Bell.... {nm} DTravel Aug 25, 18:30

2020 will have endless this is the end for movie theaters click bait articles. VictorY will be losing his mind. jamesbik333 Aug 25, 11:07

I'm not worried about VictorY. He wouldn't be able to keep losing his mind so much if he was very good at finding it again afterwards. {nm} DTravel Aug 25, 12:10

...and to think I know people who had 2019 at 20+% over 2018, if not higher...so underwhelming. {nm} LaForza Aug 25, 21:08

I think that's more a reflection of the predictors than the box office. Coming into 2019 the summer looked stacked, and that incentivised RogerMore Aug 26, 07:20

Good stuff. RM. I just posted my take also and agree with many of your points. {nm} VictorY Aug 26, 09:54





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The Weight (THEWT) 87202 8.17 (+0.95)          Dynamic Duo (DYDUO) 25000 95.24 (-0.70)          Dhurandhar: The Revenge (DHUR2) 150000 21.77 (-0.01)          Hoppers (HOPPR) 150000 140.24 (0.00)          All of a Sudden (AOASD) 150000 1.90 (-0.10)          Scream 7 (SCRM7) 150000 111.80 (+0.73)          Project Hail Mary (PRJHM) 150000 218.17 (-0.67)          The Bride! (BRIDE) 150000 22.98 (-0.06)          Rock'em Sock'em Robots (RMSMR) 150000 15.73 (+0.32)          They Will Kill You H$10 Call (TWKYU.CA) 9421 0.76 (0.00)          Astaire (ASTAI) 149996 5.12 (+0.03)          Dynamic Duo (DYDUO) 149996 95.24 (-0.70)          They Will Kill You H$10 Call (TWKYU.CA) 15579 0.76 (0.00)          Wild Horse Nine (WILDH) 65087 11.17 (-0.52)          Honeymoon With Harry (HWHRY) 149996 12.88 (-0.08)          Killing Gawker (KGAWK) 149996 10.67 (+0.03)          Misty Green (MSTYG) 4 12.28 (-0.20)          Rock'em Sock'em Robots (RMSMR) 149998 15.73 (+0.32)          Rock'em Sock'em Robots (RMSMR) 149996 15.73 (+0.32)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 10000 165.04 (-0.04)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 10000 165.04 (-0.04)          Bluey the Movie (BLUEY) 126 142.13 (-0.11)          The Mummy 4 (MUMY5) 150000 92.33 (-0.02)          4 Kids Walk Into a Bank (4KWIB) 10000 7.08 (-0.06)          The Memory Police (TMEMP) 149998 5.42 (+0.53)          4 Kids Walk Into a Bank (4KWIB) 10000 7.08 (-0.06)          The Memory Police (TMEMP) 149996 5.42 (+0.53)          Michael (MJACK) 50000 184.66 (+2.00)          Wild Horse Nine (WILDH) 149998 11.17 (-0.52)          Wild Horse Nine (WILDH) 149996 11.17 (-0.52)          Ramayana (RAMAY) 10000 7.89 (-0.01)          Ramayana (RAMAY) 10000 7.89 (-0.01)          The Weight (THEWT) 150000 8.17 (+0.95)          Top Gun 3 (TOPG3) 150000 218.74 (-0.43)          The Weight (THEWT) 150000 8.17 (+0.95)          Shaun The Sheep: The Beast Of Mo (SHEP3) 20000 10.99 (-0.49)          The Weight (THEWT) 150000 8.17 (+0.95)          Varanasi (VARAN) 25000 10.49 (+0.94)          Bad Bridgets (BRDGT) 25000 6.84 (+0.87)          The Weight (THEWT) 25000 8.17 (+0.95)          Misty Green (MSTYG) 10000 12.28 (-0.20)          Seance on a Wet Afternoon (SOAWA) 25000 5.81 (+0.76)          The Optimist (OPTMS) 150000 1.71 (-0.02)          Joni Mitchell biopic (JONIM) 10000 13.97 (+0.55)          Shaun The Sheep: The Beast Of Mo (SHEP3) 25000 10.99 (-0.49)          Tow (TOW) 150000 2.27 (-0.02)          Joni Mitchell biopic (JONIM) 70000 13.97 (+0.55)          Three Incestuous Sisters (3INCS) 25000 13.49 (-0.90)          Heart Eyes 2 (HRTE2) 20000 19.03 (-1.22)          Heart of the Beast (HOTBS) 5000 23.44 (-0.12)