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Looking at annual numbers between 2017, 2018, 2019. 2019 should beat 2017 and using straight comparisons may beat 2018.

Posted by: Catzan (a.k.a SONYXFund) on Aug 25, 09:59

2017 shortfell 2018 in the Fall by 180m or so as all it had was "It" which 2019 has also.

2017 beat 2018 in the Hollidays by 508m or so because it had Star Wars and a surprising Jumanji.

2019 is up on 2017 YTD by 237m or so.

So, projecting according to past performances:

2019: 7.64B + 1.22B + 3.1B = 11.96B if 2019 runs flat to 2017.

2018 ended at 11.89B

2017 ended at 11.07B

But, I did not look closely at Fall so 2019 may underperform worse than 2017. The Holidays may be worse this year but I think Frozen 2 compares favorably to Thor: Ragnorak. Jumanji 2 or Star Wars may see some drop off but I think not enough to drop 2019 below 2017.

In all, my guesstimation is that 2019 will fall between 2017 and 2018 but still has a chance to be the best year ever.

2020...now that is a year that might just bring out all the doomsayers. No culmination of Avengers or Star Wars to pump up the box office.

I used BOM's YTD and Seasonal charts to get these round numbers.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/?view2=ytdcompare&view=releasedate&p=.htm

Looking at annual numbers between 2017, 2018, 2019. 2019 should beat 2017 and using straight comparisons may beat 2018. Catzan Aug 25, 09:59

i just did my first forecast for 2020 and its not pretty. It's pretty rough because its filled with placeholders but its 9 points down v '19 {nm} Moviesnob Aug 25, 10:09

to your point (no SW, no Avengers) i have 6 titles that gross over $400m domestic in the 2019 calendar. 2020, I have one Moviesnob Aug 25, 10:15

Not just no Avengers/Star Wars. 2020 Disney remakes are Mulan and that's it, while the Iger retirement year had Lion King, Aladdin, Dumbo RogerMore Aug 25, 10:29

adding RAYA into 2020 gets my forecast to 7.5% down for 2020 v 2019 {nm} Moviesnob Aug 25, 10:50

if only there were a way to take some chances on other non-IP projects to pick up the potential slack {nm} professor zovek Aug 25, 10:55

Isn't that illegal now? {nm} DTravel Aug 25, 12:12

only if you work for Disney {nm} RazorHawk Aug 25, 14:37