HSX Forum

Movies

Can be true of any forecast site. Last weekend was really good, but the previous few were off. {nm}

Posted by: TheTomAsta on Jul 19, 16:32 in response to Mala-Droi's post I find their forecasts usually very off target

BoxOffice Pro Weekend Forecast: Dunkirk $55 mil, Girls $27.5 mil, Valerian $17.5 mil TheTomAsta Jul 19, 16:15

I find their forecasts usually very off target {nm} Mala-Droi Jul 19, 16:29

Can be true of any forecast site. Last weekend was really good, but the previous few were off. TheTomAsta Jul 19, 16:32

Made up figures based on facebook likes {nm} Chimpmuck Jul 19, 17:07

None of the movies this weekend are listed in the BOP top 10 facebook, but dunkirk and valer are 1 and 2 in twitter. {nm} arf Jul 19, 17:21

Equally useless info with regard to translating to an OW number {nm} Chimpmuck Jul 19, 17:29

Not if you know how to interpret it. Social media is a hugely useful tool in forecasting (not just for us but other services as well). {nm} ShawnMR Jul 19, 17:50

Our automated Facebook tracking is down right now, which is why that chart is blank unfortunately. {nm} ShawnMR Jul 19, 17:49

Thank you for that update! {nm} arf Jul 19, 19:28

We've scored accuracy results of 81% or higher on all but 3 wide openers in the past month, including 5 at 96% or higher. We have our lulls ShawnMR Jul 19, 17:55

I think you're the best service out there by far for predicting ... you do a ton of due diligence. keep it up. {nm} lobogotti Jul 19, 19:57

7-20-2017 is Judgement Day for your predictions. We'll wee how it goes. :) (I hope yer right) {nm} arf Jul 19, 23:12

May I challenge you to a box office duel? You can use your social media, I'll go with production and distro knowledge {nm} doitdoitdoitnow Jul 19, 23:21

where do you post your numbers? {nm} RazorHawk Jul 20, 09:13

Does 81% accuracy mean that Dunkirk could fall between $45-65M and you'd consider yourself "correct"? That's quite a range {nm} benz0 Jul 20, 10:10

To be fair, I don't know how correct other publications are, so maybe 81% is indeed great comparatively {nm} benz0 Jul 20, 10:11

70-75% accuracy is the norm, and most tracking services fudge - eg they'll say low 20s, or a range of 30-40. {nm} RogerMore Jul 20, 12:08





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


Monopoly (MONOP) 149998 12.17 (+0.69)          Stoner (STONR) 898 0.03 (0.00)          The Raid (RAID1) 498 0.03 (0.00)          Only What We Carry (OWWC) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Soulm8te (SOM8T) 150000 14.23 (-2.64)          Soulm8te (SOM8T) 150000 14.23 (-2.64)          The Batman: Part II (TBAT2) 1 259.44 (-1.32)          Mob Girl (MOBGR) 11496 0.03 (0.00)          Audition (AUDTN) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 (5NAF2) 31250 110.38 (+2.58)          Dog Years (DOGYS) 150000 1.66 (-0.34)          Only What We Carry (OWWC) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          The Chaperones (CHAPR) 150000 9.15 (-0.85)          Audition (AUDTN) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4) 25000 75.14 (-4.59)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4) 25000 75.14 (-4.59)          Long Day’s Journey Into Night (LDSJN) 4990 0.03 (-0.01)          Only What We Carry (OWWC) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Assisted Living (ASLIV) 6997 0.03 (0.00)          Madden (MADEN) 150000 19.68 (+0.06)          Triplets (TRPLT) 899 0.02 (+0.01)          The Great Emu War (GEMUW) 3492 0.02 (0.00)          Hamnet (HAMNT) 150000 19.66 (-0.57)          Bad Blood (BDBLD) 797 0.02 (0.00)          Happy Death Day To Us (HDTH3) 150000 11.89 (0.00)          Attack the Block 2 (ATBL2) 299 0.02 (0.00)          The Astronaut (ASTRN) 3000 0.02 (0.00)          Hamnet (HAMNT) 150000 19.66 (-0.57)          Happy Death Day To Us (HDTH3) 150000 11.89 (0.00)          Hey Joe (TUMIA) 10292 0.01 (0.00)          Hey Joe (TUMIA) 507 0.01 (0.00)          Happy Death Day To Us (HDTH3) 150000 11.89 (0.00)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.PU) 25000 2.55 (+0.66)          The Fence (TFENC) 1995 0.01 (-0.01)          Claire Foy (CFOY) 8 14.82 (-0.10)          Happy Death Day To Us (HDTH3) 150000 11.89 (0.00)          Hamnet (HAMNT) 150000 19.66 (-0.57)          Headhunters (HDHUN) 135 12.54 (0.00)          The Garfield Movie 2 (GRFL2) 300 29.91 (-0.03)          Semplica Girl Diaries (SEMGD) 150 3.76 (+0.01)          The Garfield Movie 2 (GRFL2) 300 29.91 (-0.03)          Sesame Street (SESAM) 15 1.00 (+0.01)          Kent State (KENTS) 8 1.97 (+0.01)          Rock'em Sock'em Robots (RMSMR) 1 17.26 (-0.81)          Hamnet (HAMNT) 150000 19.66 (-0.57)          The Familiars (FAMIL) 210 9.99 (0.00)          Night Has Fallen (HFAL4) 5 2.17 (-0.01)          Night Has Fallen (HFAL4) 5 2.17 (-0.01)          Mamma Mia 3 (MAMI3) 5 24.07 (-0.10)          Latchkey Kids (LTCHK) 9993 0.01 (-0.02)