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70-75% accuracy is the norm, and most tracking services fudge - eg they'll say low 20s, or a range of 30-40. {nm}

Posted by: RogerMore on Jul 20, 12:08 in response to benz0's post To be fair, I don't know how correct other publications...

BoxOffice Pro Weekend Forecast: Dunkirk $55 mil, Girls $27.5 mil, Valerian $17.5 mil TheTomAsta Jul 19, 16:15

I find their forecasts usually very off target {nm} Mala-Droi Jul 19, 16:29

Can be true of any forecast site. Last weekend was really good, but the previous few were off. {nm} TheTomAsta Jul 19, 16:32

Made up figures based on facebook likes {nm} Chimpmuck Jul 19, 17:07

None of the movies this weekend are listed in the BOP top 10 facebook, but dunkirk and valer are 1 and 2 in twitter. {nm} arf Jul 19, 17:21

Equally useless info with regard to translating to an OW number {nm} Chimpmuck Jul 19, 17:29

Not if you know how to interpret it. Social media is a hugely useful tool in forecasting (not just for us but other services as well). {nm} ShawnMR Jul 19, 17:50

Our automated Facebook tracking is down right now, which is why that chart is blank unfortunately. {nm} ShawnMR Jul 19, 17:49

Thank you for that update! {nm} arf Jul 19, 19:28

We've scored accuracy results of 81% or higher on all but 3 wide openers in the past month, including 5 at 96% or higher. We have our lulls ShawnMR Jul 19, 17:55

I think you're the best service out there by far for predicting ... you do a ton of due diligence. keep it up. {nm} lobogotti Jul 19, 19:57

7-20-2017 is Judgement Day for your predictions. We'll wee how it goes. :) (I hope yer right) {nm} arf Jul 19, 23:12

May I challenge you to a box office duel? You can use your social media, I'll go with production and distro knowledge {nm} doitdoitdoitnow Jul 19, 23:21

where do you post your numbers? {nm} RazorHawk Jul 20, 09:13

Does 81% accuracy mean that Dunkirk could fall between $45-65M and you'd consider yourself "correct"? That's quite a range {nm} benz0 Jul 20, 10:10

To be fair, I don't know how correct other publications are, so maybe 81% is indeed great comparatively {nm} benz0 Jul 20, 10:11

70-75% accuracy is the norm, and most tracking services fudge - eg they'll say low 20s, or a range of 30-40. RogerMore Jul 20, 12:08





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The Mummy 4 (MUMY5) 10 65.67 (+0.08)          John Wick: Chapter 5 (WICK5) 10 116.59 (-0.11)          A Minecraft Movie II (MINE2) 10 284.38 (-0.44)          Stop! That! Train! (STTRN) 100000 5.30 (-0.38)          Kockroach (KOCKR) 40000 13.28 (+0.03)          Monopoly (MONOP) 30000 11.98 (+0.50)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.PU) 25000 2.87 (+0.98)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.PU) 25000 2.87 (+0.98)          Stop! That! Train! (STTRN) 30000 5.30 (-0.38)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.CA) 25000 1.65 (-0.92)          Only What We Carry (OWWC) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.CA) 25000 1.65 (-0.92)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.OW) 100000 22.47 (-2.89)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.OW) 100000 22.47 (-2.89)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4) 150000 73.47 (-6.26)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4) 150000 73.47 (-6.26)          Audition (AUDTN) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Only What We Carry (OWWC) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Super Troopers 3 (STRO3) 149999 23.93 (+1.15)          Top Gun 3 (TOPG3) 9815 257.88 (-1.62)          Fauzi (FAUZI) 50000 5.07 (+1.36)          Fauzi (FAUZI) 50000 5.07 (+1.36)          Fauzi (FAUZI) 50000 5.07 (+1.36)          Fauzi (FAUZI) 50000 5.07 (+1.36)          Fauzi (FAUZI) 50000 5.07 (+1.36)          Fauzi (FAUZI) 50000 5.07 (+1.36)          Audition (AUDTN) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Only What We Carry (OWWC) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Mother Mary (MMARY) 150000 11.56 (-0.83)          Mother Mary (MMARY) 150000 11.56 (-0.83)          Naruto (NARUT) 150000 20.43 (+0.47)          Naruto (NARUT) 150000 20.43 (+0.47)          Silent Night, Deadly Night (SNDN) 150000 15.62 (+0.46)          Silent Night, Deadly Night (SNDN) 150000 15.62 (+0.46)          Silent Night, Deadly Night (SNDN) 150000 15.62 (+0.46)          Silent Night, Deadly Night (SNDN) 150000 15.62 (+0.46)          Naruto (NARUT) 150000 20.43 (+0.47)          Naruto (NARUT) 150000 20.43 (+0.47)          Kill Bill: The Whole Bloody Affa (KBWBA) 2345 20.01 (-1.76)          Tower of Terror (TOWRT) 10 14.61 (+0.12)          Hamnet (HAMNT) 24976 18.80 (-1.43)          Top Gun 3 (TOPG3) 20 257.88 (-1.62)          Audition (AUDTN) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Ocean's (OCEN5) 4 49.66 (-0.05)          Stepdude aka Oh Hell No (OHELN) 125 3.23 (-0.01)          Only What We Carry (OWWC) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Top Gun 3 (TOPG3) 8 257.88 (-1.62)          Tomb Raider (TOMB4) 10 5.48 (-0.04)          The Young People (TYPEP) 110 19.20 (-0.16)          Scarface (SCARF) 40 0.31 (+0.01)