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70-75% accuracy is the norm, and most tracking services fudge - eg they'll say low 20s, or a range of 30-40. {nm}

Posted by: RogerMore on Jul 20, 12:08 in response to benz0's post To be fair, I don't know how correct other publications...

BoxOffice Pro Weekend Forecast: Dunkirk $55 mil, Girls $27.5 mil, Valerian $17.5 mil TheTomAsta Jul 19, 16:15

I find their forecasts usually very off target {nm} Mala-Droi Jul 19, 16:29

Can be true of any forecast site. Last weekend was really good, but the previous few were off. {nm} TheTomAsta Jul 19, 16:32

Made up figures based on facebook likes {nm} Chimpmuck Jul 19, 17:07

None of the movies this weekend are listed in the BOP top 10 facebook, but dunkirk and valer are 1 and 2 in twitter. {nm} arf Jul 19, 17:21

Equally useless info with regard to translating to an OW number {nm} Chimpmuck Jul 19, 17:29

Not if you know how to interpret it. Social media is a hugely useful tool in forecasting (not just for us but other services as well). {nm} ShawnMR Jul 19, 17:50

Our automated Facebook tracking is down right now, which is why that chart is blank unfortunately. {nm} ShawnMR Jul 19, 17:49

Thank you for that update! {nm} arf Jul 19, 19:28

We've scored accuracy results of 81% or higher on all but 3 wide openers in the past month, including 5 at 96% or higher. We have our lulls ShawnMR Jul 19, 17:55

I think you're the best service out there by far for predicting ... you do a ton of due diligence. keep it up. {nm} lobogotti Jul 19, 19:57

7-20-2017 is Judgement Day for your predictions. We'll wee how it goes. :) (I hope yer right) {nm} arf Jul 19, 23:12

May I challenge you to a box office duel? You can use your social media, I'll go with production and distro knowledge {nm} doitdoitdoitnow Jul 19, 23:21

where do you post your numbers? {nm} RazorHawk Jul 20, 09:13

Does 81% accuracy mean that Dunkirk could fall between $45-65M and you'd consider yourself "correct"? That's quite a range {nm} benz0 Jul 20, 10:10

To be fair, I don't know how correct other publications are, so maybe 81% is indeed great comparatively {nm} benz0 Jul 20, 10:11

70-75% accuracy is the norm, and most tracking services fudge - eg they'll say low 20s, or a range of 30-40. RogerMore Jul 20, 12:08





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Joni Mitchell biopic (JONIM) 149999 14.94 (+1.52)          Call of Duty (CODUT) 150000 60.00 (0.00)          George Clooney (GCLOO) 2000 37.21 (+0.13)          Caren Pistorius (CPIST) 24996 7.60 (+0.04)          Mark Rylance (MRYLA) 2000 62.23 (-0.23)          Barry Jenkins (BJENK) 24999 57.52 (+0.16)          Call of Duty (CODUT) 150000 60.00 (0.00)          Liana Liberato (LLIBE) 24996 38.16 (+0.12)          Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 75000 12.97 (-0.03)          Joni Mitchell biopic (JONIM) 150000 14.94 (+1.52)          Call of Duty (CODUT) 150000 60.00 (0.00)          Owen Wilson (OWILS) 1000 26.76 (0.00)          Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 78000 12.97 (-0.03)          Sarah Gadon (SGADO) 1 4.30 (-0.01)          Sarah Gadon (SGADO) 24997 4.30 (-0.01)          Alice Eve (AEVE) 1 9.81 (0.00)          Alice Eve (AEVE) 24999 9.81 (0.00)          Dynamic Duo (DYDUO) 150000 92.99 (-2.95)          Dynamic Duo (DYDUO) 150000 92.99 (-2.95)          Call of Duty (CODUT) 150000 60.00 (0.00)          Kate Beckinsale (KBECK) 24998 15.38 (-0.19)          Nick Offerman (NOFFE) 25000 51.71 (-0.33)          Nick Offerman (NOFFE) 25000 51.71 (-0.33)          Undertone (UNDTN) 150000 19.56 (-1.50)          Undertone (UNDTN) 150000 19.56 (-1.50)          Sheep in the Box (SHPBX) 150000 1.85 (-0.15)          Heat 2 (HEAT2) 52458 58.26 (+0.10)          Watch Dogs (WTDOG) 5000 9.60 (-0.01)          Call of Duty (CODUT) 150000 60.00 (0.00)          Balls Up (BALUP) 5000 6.15 (-0.11)          Ready or Not 2: Here I Come (RONO2) 150000 24.18 (-0.42)          Call of Duty (CODUT) 150000 60.00 (0.00)          Ready or Not 2: Here I Come (RONO2) 150000 24.18 (-0.42)          RZA (RZA) 24991 54.15 (-0.16)          RJ Cyler (RCYLE) 1 25.62 (-0.25)          RJ Cyler (RCYLE) 25000 25.62 (-0.25)          Clark Gregg (CGREG) 24997 51.54 (-0.01)          Clark Gregg (CGREG) 1 51.54 (-0.01)          Call of Duty (CODUT) 10000 60.00 (0.00)          Rachel Zegler (RZEGL) 24996 55.63 (-0.01)          Justin Timberlake (JTIMB) 24996 50.72 (-0.01)          Meagan Good (MGOOD) 1 45.81 (-0.01)          Meagan Good (MGOOD) 24997 45.81 (-0.01)          Call of Duty (CODUT) 63904 60.00 (0.00)          Matthew Lillard (MLILL) 25000 72.89 (0.00)          Neve Campbell (NCAMP) 25000 57.67 (+0.34)          Mckenna Grace (MCGRA) 25000 78.51 (-0.75)          Joel McHale (JMCHA) 25000 27.13 (+0.50)          Call of Duty (CODUT) 150000 60.00 (0.00)          Project Hail Mary (PRJHM) 27389 217.26 (-1.58)