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I find their forecasts usually very off target {nm}

Posted by: Mala-Droi on Jul 19, 16:29 in response to TheTomAsta's post BoxOffice Pro Weekend Forecast: Dunkirk $55 mil, Girls...

BoxOffice Pro Weekend Forecast: Dunkirk $55 mil, Girls $27.5 mil, Valerian $17.5 mil TheTomAsta Jul 19, 16:15

I find their forecasts usually very off target Mala-Droi Jul 19, 16:29

Can be true of any forecast site. Last weekend was really good, but the previous few were off. {nm} TheTomAsta Jul 19, 16:32

Made up figures based on facebook likes {nm} Chimpmuck Jul 19, 17:07

None of the movies this weekend are listed in the BOP top 10 facebook, but dunkirk and valer are 1 and 2 in twitter. {nm} arf Jul 19, 17:21

Equally useless info with regard to translating to an OW number {nm} Chimpmuck Jul 19, 17:29

Not if you know how to interpret it. Social media is a hugely useful tool in forecasting (not just for us but other services as well). {nm} ShawnMR Jul 19, 17:50

Our automated Facebook tracking is down right now, which is why that chart is blank unfortunately. {nm} ShawnMR Jul 19, 17:49

Thank you for that update! {nm} arf Jul 19, 19:28

We've scored accuracy results of 81% or higher on all but 3 wide openers in the past month, including 5 at 96% or higher. We have our lulls ShawnMR Jul 19, 17:55

I think you're the best service out there by far for predicting ... you do a ton of due diligence. keep it up. {nm} lobogotti Jul 19, 19:57

7-20-2017 is Judgement Day for your predictions. We'll wee how it goes. :) (I hope yer right) {nm} arf Jul 19, 23:12

May I challenge you to a box office duel? You can use your social media, I'll go with production and distro knowledge {nm} doitdoitdoitnow Jul 19, 23:21

where do you post your numbers? {nm} RazorHawk Jul 20, 09:13

Does 81% accuracy mean that Dunkirk could fall between $45-65M and you'd consider yourself "correct"? That's quite a range {nm} benz0 Jul 20, 10:10

To be fair, I don't know how correct other publications are, so maybe 81% is indeed great comparatively {nm} benz0 Jul 20, 10:11

70-75% accuracy is the norm, and most tracking services fudge - eg they'll say low 20s, or a range of 30-40. {nm} RogerMore Jul 20, 12:08





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The Movie Critic (TMOVC) 5 57.42 (-7.55)          The Movie Critic (TMOVC) 150000 57.42 (-7.55)          City on Fire (CTOFR) 149999 24.40 (-0.62)          Tarot H$15 Call (HRSCP.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          The Fall Guy H$50 Call (FALGY.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Tarot H$15 Put (HRSCP.PU) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          The Ministry Of Ungentlemanly Wa (TMOUW) 141612 27.64 (-3.78)          The Fall Guy - Opening Weekend (FALGY.OW) 100000 50.00 (0.00)          Dracula - A Love Tale (DRALT) 149999 19.51 (+2.05)          The Movie Critic (TMOVC) 150000 57.42 (-7.55)          The Movie Critic (TMOVC) 2985 57.42 (-7.55)          The Fall Guy H$50 Call (FALGY.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          The Ministry Of Ungentlemanly Wa (TMOUW) 150000 27.64 (-3.78)          Tarot H$15 Call (HRSCP.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Tarot H$15 Put (HRSCP.PU) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          The Movie Critic (TMOVC) 5 57.42 (-7.55)          Spy x Family Code: White - Openi (SPYFM.OW) 100000 8.44 (-0.73)          Spy x Family Code: White - Openi (SPYFM.OW) 100000 8.44 (-0.73)          Civil War (CVLWR) 25000 63.61 (-0.94)          Dracula - A Love Tale (DRALT) 150000 19.51 (+2.05)          Dracula - A Love Tale (DRALT) 150000 19.51 (+2.05)          Abigail (ABGAL) 150000 55.02 (-4.70)          The Movie Critic (TMOVC) 101486 57.42 (-7.55)          Civil War (CVLWR) 150000 63.61 (-0.94)          A Big Bold Beautiful Journey (ABBBJ) 150000 38.88 (+1.33)          Blade (BLAD1) 150000 113.75 (+1.47)          Blade (BLAD1) 150000 113.75 (+1.47)          A Woman of No Importance (AWONI) 150000 0.03 (-0.03)          Uptown Saturday Night (USATN) 91022 0.04 (0.00)          Uptown Saturday Night (USATN) 150000 0.04 (0.00)          Captain America: Brave New World (CAPA4) 10000 200.36 (+1.62)          Zootopia 2 (ZOOT2) 10000 177.84 (+1.74)          The Movie Critic (TMOVC) 28141 57.42 (-7.55)          Civil War (CVLWR) 150000 63.61 (-0.94)          The Ballad of Wallis Island (TBOWI) 150000 6.00 (0.00)          The Fall Guy (FALGY) 109494 136.58 (-1.13)          Jenna Ortega (JORTE) 25000 41.95 (+1.09)          Daisy Ridley (DRIDL) 25000 51.65 (-1.43)          Avengers 5 (AVNG5) 10470 349.38 (+1.51)          Sydney Sweeney (SSWEE) 25000 73.72 (+1.24)          Paul Rudd (PRUDD) 25000 161.73 (-0.02)          Patton Oswalt (POSWA) 25000 53.34 (-1.33)          Carrie Coon (CCOON) 25000 56.23 (+1.44)          Bill Murray (BMURR) 25000 104.52 (-1.37)          Play Dirty (PLDRT) 149999 26.19 (-0.82)          Play Dirty (PLDRT) 150000 26.19 (-0.82)          Kristen Bell (KBELL) 18750 117.90 (-0.09)          The Movie Critic (TMOVC) 150000 57.42 (-7.55)          Tarot (HRSCP) 3 29.47 (-0.88)          Kumail Nanjiani (KNANJ) 25000 96.29 (-1.40)