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I find their forecasts usually very off target {nm}

Posted by: Mala-Droi on Jul 19, 16:29 in response to TheTomAsta's post BoxOffice Pro Weekend Forecast: Dunkirk $55 mil, Girls...

BoxOffice Pro Weekend Forecast: Dunkirk $55 mil, Girls $27.5 mil, Valerian $17.5 mil TheTomAsta Jul 19, 16:15

I find their forecasts usually very off target Mala-Droi Jul 19, 16:29

Can be true of any forecast site. Last weekend was really good, but the previous few were off. {nm} TheTomAsta Jul 19, 16:32

Made up figures based on facebook likes {nm} Chimpmuck Jul 19, 17:07

None of the movies this weekend are listed in the BOP top 10 facebook, but dunkirk and valer are 1 and 2 in twitter. {nm} arf Jul 19, 17:21

Equally useless info with regard to translating to an OW number {nm} Chimpmuck Jul 19, 17:29

Not if you know how to interpret it. Social media is a hugely useful tool in forecasting (not just for us but other services as well). {nm} ShawnMR Jul 19, 17:50

Our automated Facebook tracking is down right now, which is why that chart is blank unfortunately. {nm} ShawnMR Jul 19, 17:49

Thank you for that update! {nm} arf Jul 19, 19:28

We've scored accuracy results of 81% or higher on all but 3 wide openers in the past month, including 5 at 96% or higher. We have our lulls ShawnMR Jul 19, 17:55

I think you're the best service out there by far for predicting ... you do a ton of due diligence. keep it up. {nm} lobogotti Jul 19, 19:57

7-20-2017 is Judgement Day for your predictions. We'll wee how it goes. :) (I hope yer right) {nm} arf Jul 19, 23:12

May I challenge you to a box office duel? You can use your social media, I'll go with production and distro knowledge {nm} doitdoitdoitnow Jul 19, 23:21

where do you post your numbers? {nm} RazorHawk Jul 20, 09:13

Does 81% accuracy mean that Dunkirk could fall between $45-65M and you'd consider yourself "correct"? That's quite a range {nm} benz0 Jul 20, 10:10

To be fair, I don't know how correct other publications are, so maybe 81% is indeed great comparatively {nm} benz0 Jul 20, 10:11

70-75% accuracy is the norm, and most tracking services fudge - eg they'll say low 20s, or a range of 30-40. {nm} RogerMore Jul 20, 12:08





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Godzilla x Kong: Supernova (GOKO3) 3000 160.22 (0.00)          Company (COMPN) 150000 7.65 (-0.35)          Matthew Lillard (MLILL) 25000 83.58 (-0.25)          Moana - $115M Blockbuster Warran (MOAN1.BW) 25000 6.15 (+0.50)          From the World of John Wick: Cai (FJWCN) 4 47.62 (-0.06)          Riddick: Furya (RIDC3) 40000 2.64 (+0.01)          The Angry Birds Movie 3 (ANGR3) 4000 39.86 (-0.10)          Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Ve (ASPD3) 32 241.87 (+0.85)          Dune: Part Three (DUNE3) 4000 252.94 (+0.39)          The Thomas Crown Affair (TTCAF) 35 60.93 (+0.65)          I Play Rocky (IPROC) 25000 36.51 (-0.02)          Avengers: Doomsday (AVNG5) 4000 561.55 (+5.23)          Zero A.D.: The Birth of Christ (BTLHM) 4000 33.35 (-0.04)          The Musical (MSCAL) 150000 1.02 (+0.02)          Company (COMPN) 150000 7.65 (-0.35)          Focker In-Law (MPRN4) 4000 121.50 (0.00)          Tony (TONY) 150000 17.27 (+0.20)          Hexed (HEXED) 4000 121.73 (+0.12)          Star Wars: Dawn of the Jedi (STRW1) 10000 77.42 (+0.22)          I Play Rocky (IPROC) 3000 36.51 (-0.02)          The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the (HGAM6) 3000 188.24 (+0.26)          The Horror Fund X (SPOOK) 229 43.33 (-0.06)          Moana - $115M Blockbuster Warran (MOAN1.BW) 25000 6.15 (+0.50)          Spaceballs: The New One (SPCB2) 3000 143.51 (-0.15)          Disclosure Day H$105M Blockbuste (SKIES.BW) 25000 10.58 (+0.21)          Michelle Rodriguez (MRODR) 2000 84.50 (+0.02)          Toy Story 5 $405M Blockbuster Wa (TOYS5.BW) 25000 17.28 (+0.28)          Tom and Jerry: Forbidden Compass (TMJR2) 30000 19.43 (-0.31)          One Night Only H$10 Put (ONTON.PU) 25000 2.71 (-0.08)          The Legend of Zelda (ZELDA) 3000 227.80 (-0.24)          One Night Only - Opening Weekend (ONTON.OW) 100000 9.09 (+0.07)          Shailene Woodley (SWOOD) 25000 15.32 (-0.10)          PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie - Ope (PAWP3.OW) 100000 19.71 (+0.02)          PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie H$20 (PAWP3.PU) 25000 2.93 (+0.04)          Haunted Heist (HAUHS) 150000 0.60 (+0.02)          Pablo Schreiber (PSCHR) 25000 35.05 (-0.12)          The Resurrection of the Christ (RESUR) 6000 173.61 (+0.01)          Alan Ritchson (ARITC) 25000 61.80 (+0.25)          10 Lives (10LIV) 30000 1.74 (+0.01)          Ice Cream Man - Opening Weekend (ICREM.OW) 100000 4.20 (-0.29)          Super Troopers 3 H$15 Call (STRO3.CA) 25000 0.97 (+0.08)          Super Troopers 3 - Opening Weeke (STRO3.OW) 100000 12.85 (+0.05)          Gatto (GATTO) 3000 138.90 (-0.70)          Tony (TONY) 150000 17.27 (+0.20)          Club Kid (CLUBK) 150000 14.05 (+1.54)          Next Life (NEXLF) 40000 1.25 (0.00)          Leo Woodall (LWOOD) 25000 6.62 (-0.05)          Monitor (MONTR) 129000 11.85 (+0.07)          The Haunting of Hotel Transylvan (HTRN5) 150000 83.12 (+1.09)          Nomad (NOMD1) 100000 0.69 (0.00)