HSX Forum

Movies

I find their forecasts usually very off target {nm}

Posted by: Mala-Droi on Jul 19, 16:29 in response to TheTomAsta's post BoxOffice Pro Weekend Forecast: Dunkirk $55 mil, Girls...

BoxOffice Pro Weekend Forecast: Dunkirk $55 mil, Girls $27.5 mil, Valerian $17.5 mil TheTomAsta Jul 19, 16:15

I find their forecasts usually very off target Mala-Droi Jul 19, 16:29

Can be true of any forecast site. Last weekend was really good, but the previous few were off. {nm} TheTomAsta Jul 19, 16:32

Made up figures based on facebook likes {nm} Chimpmuck Jul 19, 17:07

None of the movies this weekend are listed in the BOP top 10 facebook, but dunkirk and valer are 1 and 2 in twitter. {nm} arf Jul 19, 17:21

Equally useless info with regard to translating to an OW number {nm} Chimpmuck Jul 19, 17:29

Not if you know how to interpret it. Social media is a hugely useful tool in forecasting (not just for us but other services as well). {nm} ShawnMR Jul 19, 17:50

Our automated Facebook tracking is down right now, which is why that chart is blank unfortunately. {nm} ShawnMR Jul 19, 17:49

Thank you for that update! {nm} arf Jul 19, 19:28

We've scored accuracy results of 81% or higher on all but 3 wide openers in the past month, including 5 at 96% or higher. We have our lulls ShawnMR Jul 19, 17:55

I think you're the best service out there by far for predicting ... you do a ton of due diligence. keep it up. {nm} lobogotti Jul 19, 19:57

7-20-2017 is Judgement Day for your predictions. We'll wee how it goes. :) (I hope yer right) {nm} arf Jul 19, 23:12

May I challenge you to a box office duel? You can use your social media, I'll go with production and distro knowledge {nm} doitdoitdoitnow Jul 19, 23:21

where do you post your numbers? {nm} RazorHawk Jul 20, 09:13

Does 81% accuracy mean that Dunkirk could fall between $45-65M and you'd consider yourself "correct"? That's quite a range {nm} benz0 Jul 20, 10:10

To be fair, I don't know how correct other publications are, so maybe 81% is indeed great comparatively {nm} benz0 Jul 20, 10:11

70-75% accuracy is the norm, and most tracking services fudge - eg they'll say low 20s, or a range of 30-40. {nm} RogerMore Jul 20, 12:08





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


Summoner (SMONR) 5000 14.98 (-0.11)          Kit Connor (KICON) 25000 56.56 (+0.66)          Resident Evil (RESE8) 25000 106.28 (+6.15)          Digger (DIGER) 150000 72.66 (-1.40)          The Social Reckoning (SOCI2) 25000 56.98 (-1.22)          Your Mother Your Mother Your Mot (YOURM) 150000 8.07 (+0.56)          Your Mother Your Mother Your Mot (YOURM) 150000 8.07 (+0.56)          Crawl 2 (CRAW2) 149999 16.64 (+2.59)          Copperhead (COPRH) 150000 18.60 (+0.99)          Crawl 2 (CRAW2) 150000 16.64 (+2.59)          Copperhead (COPRH) 150000 18.60 (+0.99)          Ryan Gosling (RGOSL) 25000 165.37 (+0.50)          Greta Gerwig (GGERW) 25000 94.64 (0.00)          Slayground aka October (OCTOB) 150000 6.46 (+1.53)          Slayground aka October (OCTOB) 149999 6.46 (+1.53)          Florence Pugh (FPUGH) 25000 153.62 (+1.50)          Honeymoon/Funeral (HNYMF) 150000 6.00 (0.00)          The Social Reckoning (SOCI2) 150000 56.98 (-1.22)          The Social Reckoning (SOCI2) 150000 56.98 (-1.22)          The Uprising (THOOD) 150000 7.68 (-0.11)          Resident Evil (RESE8) 1000 106.28 (+6.15)          Practical Magic 2 (PRAC2) 150000 72.84 (+2.01)          Slayground aka October (OCTOB) 500 6.46 (+1.53)          Crawl 2 (CRAW2) 1000 16.64 (+2.59)          Copperhead (COPRH) 150000 18.60 (+0.99)          Copperhead (COPRH) 150000 18.60 (+0.99)          Paul Walter Hauser (PWHAU) 25000 96.80 (+0.75)          Austin Abrams (AABRA) 25000 60.72 (+1.00)          Zach Cregger (ZCREG) 25000 74.31 (+1.26)          Your Mother Your Mother Your Mot (YOURM) 150000 8.07 (+0.56)          Your Mother Your Mother Your Mot (YOURM) 150000 8.07 (+0.56)          Resident Evil (RESE8) 150000 106.28 (+6.15)          Artificial (AIFIC) 150000 21.73 (+0.50)          Artificial (AIFIC) 150000 21.73 (+0.50)          Honeymoon/Funeral (HNYMF) 150000 6.00 (0.00)          Honeymoon/Funeral (HNYMF) 149996 6.00 (0.00)          Artificial (AIFIC) 150000 21.73 (+0.50)          Artificial (AIFIC) 150000 21.73 (+0.50)          Crawl 2 (CRAW2) 9 16.64 (+2.59)          Crawl 2 (CRAW2) 149991 16.64 (+2.59)          Crawl 2 (CRAW2) 149900 16.64 (+2.59)          Crawl 2 (CRAW2) 150000 16.64 (+2.59)          The Legend of Zelda (ZELDA) 36 240.06 (+0.16)          Resident Evil (RESE8) 150000 106.28 (+6.15)          Ramayana (RAMAY) 150000 14.39 (-0.65)          Godzilla Minus Zero (GODM2) 115 70.93 (0.00)          I Play Rocky (IPROC) 185 43.39 (+0.05)          Crawl 2 (CRAW2) 150000 16.64 (+2.59)          Crawl 2 (CRAW2) 150000 16.64 (+2.59)          Ramayana (RAMAY) 150000 14.39 (-0.65)