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I find their forecasts usually very off target {nm}

Posted by: Mala-Droi on Jul 19, 16:29 in response to TheTomAsta's post BoxOffice Pro Weekend Forecast: Dunkirk $55 mil, Girls...

BoxOffice Pro Weekend Forecast: Dunkirk $55 mil, Girls $27.5 mil, Valerian $17.5 mil TheTomAsta Jul 19, 16:15

I find their forecasts usually very off target Mala-Droi Jul 19, 16:29

Can be true of any forecast site. Last weekend was really good, but the previous few were off. {nm} TheTomAsta Jul 19, 16:32

Made up figures based on facebook likes {nm} Chimpmuck Jul 19, 17:07

None of the movies this weekend are listed in the BOP top 10 facebook, but dunkirk and valer are 1 and 2 in twitter. {nm} arf Jul 19, 17:21

Equally useless info with regard to translating to an OW number {nm} Chimpmuck Jul 19, 17:29

Not if you know how to interpret it. Social media is a hugely useful tool in forecasting (not just for us but other services as well). {nm} ShawnMR Jul 19, 17:50

Our automated Facebook tracking is down right now, which is why that chart is blank unfortunately. {nm} ShawnMR Jul 19, 17:49

Thank you for that update! {nm} arf Jul 19, 19:28

We've scored accuracy results of 81% or higher on all but 3 wide openers in the past month, including 5 at 96% or higher. We have our lulls ShawnMR Jul 19, 17:55

I think you're the best service out there by far for predicting ... you do a ton of due diligence. keep it up. {nm} lobogotti Jul 19, 19:57

7-20-2017 is Judgement Day for your predictions. We'll wee how it goes. :) (I hope yer right) {nm} arf Jul 19, 23:12

May I challenge you to a box office duel? You can use your social media, I'll go with production and distro knowledge {nm} doitdoitdoitnow Jul 19, 23:21

where do you post your numbers? {nm} RazorHawk Jul 20, 09:13

Does 81% accuracy mean that Dunkirk could fall between $45-65M and you'd consider yourself "correct"? That's quite a range {nm} benz0 Jul 20, 10:10

To be fair, I don't know how correct other publications are, so maybe 81% is indeed great comparatively {nm} benz0 Jul 20, 10:11

70-75% accuracy is the norm, and most tracking services fudge - eg they'll say low 20s, or a range of 30-40. {nm} RogerMore Jul 20, 12:08





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Girls Like Girls (GRLGR) 150000 6.60 (+0.49)          Minions & Monsters (MNIO3) 150000 302.42 (-1.07)          Bad Fairies (BFAIR) 150000 44.72 (+0.45)          Toy Story 5 (TOYS5) 150000 425.51 (-1.58)          Untitled A24 Horror Film aka Unt (UASTE) 150000 23.72 (+1.17)          Viva La Madness (VLMAD) 25000 18.45 (-0.09)          Viva La Madness (VLMAD) 50000 18.45 (-0.09)          Sing 3 (SING3) 150000 57.11 (+0.85)          Sing 3 (SING3) 150000 57.11 (+0.85)          Polly Pocket (POLYP) 150000 20.37 (+1.55)          Polly Pocket (POLYP) 150000 20.37 (+1.55)          Untitled A24 Horror Film aka Unt (UASTE) 150000 23.72 (+1.17)          Scary Movie (SCAR6) 149999 103.49 (-0.79)          Scary Movie (SCAR6) 150000 103.49 (-0.79)          Untitled A24 Horror Film aka Unt (UASTE) 150000 23.72 (+1.17)          World War Hulk (THLK2) 50000 31.43 (-0.03)          Pirates of the Caribbean 6 (PIRT6) 100000 43.91 (-0.10)          The Gauntlet (GNTLT) 100000 33.13 (-0.06)          Ice Cream Man (ICREM) 4719 18.65 (0.00)          Jane (JANE1) 150000 11.71 (-0.67)          Jane (JANE1) 150000 11.71 (-0.67)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 10 19.66 (-0.02)          The Invite (TINVT) 5 19.70 (0.00)          Top Gun 3 (TOPG3) 150000 203.72 (+0.89)          Escape From New York (ESCNY) 20000 17.17 (+0.87)          Fortitude (FRTUD) 20000 10.68 (+0.79)          Untitled A24 Horror Film aka Unt (UASTE) 15000 23.72 (+1.17)          Black Panther 3 (BPNT3) 150000 232.02 (+1.33)          Polly Pocket (POLYP) 20000 20.37 (+1.55)          Escape From New York (ESCNY) 150000 17.17 (+0.87)          Supergirl H$55 Put (SUPGR.PU) 25000 3.36 (+0.06)          Mutiny (MUTNY) 30000 27.96 (-0.02)          Star Wars: The Mandalorian and G (SWAR3.BW) 25000 7.97 (+0.06)          Polly Pocket (POLYP) 75000 20.37 (+1.55)          Fortitude (FRTUD) 75000 10.68 (+0.79)          Escape From New York (ESCNY) 49999 17.17 (+0.87)          Minions & Monsters (MNIO3) 15000 302.42 (-1.07)          Young Washington H$10 Put (YWASH.PU) 25000 1.35 (-0.02)          Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Ve (ASPD3) 150000 236.59 (+0.26)          Untitled A24 Horror Film aka Unt (UASTE) 150000 23.72 (+1.17)          Gundam (GUNDM) 100 11.47 (-0.02)          Escape From New York (ESCNY) 150000 17.17 (+0.87)          Fortitude (FRTUD) 150000 10.68 (+0.79)          42.6 Years (426YR) 150000 9.48 (-1.03)          Fortitude (FRTUD) 120000 10.68 (+0.79)          Black Panther 3 (BPNT3) 150000 232.02 (+1.33)          Escape From New York (ESCNY) 150000 17.17 (+0.87)          Killing Castro (KILLC) 55000 4.83 (-0.02)          Bluey the Movie (BLUEY) 150000 141.79 (+0.22)          Jane (JANE1) 150000 11.71 (-0.67)