HSX Forums: Movies Board






Nothing's perfect, but the RS/MTC rule has been spectacularly wrong only a few times this year, which is a better record than most other

Posted by: Roger More (a.k.a CaineFund) on Oct 24, 12:34 in response to Ruthian23's post The rule, as I've been told it (rule is the wrong word,...

predictors.

For example, it correctly predicted big adjusts up for PNAC3, TLK3D, HNOV2, FFUR5 and LMTLS and that the following movies would disappoint - SHK3D, WARIR, STRAW, IDKHS, BIGYR, PAND2, SCRM4, SUCKP, and GWRRH.

Most times where the rule is wrong, the OW is close to MTC's prediction.Ā  Examples where the rule spectacularly missed the mark are RSAPE, IHOP which both adjusted up despite MTC being way lower than RS, and BMOM3, which adjusted down despite MTC being above RS.

Mtc 48 puss 13 time 9 rum 2.5 anonymous {nm}   notfabio on Oct 24, 11:42

Tagging MTC [PUSNB] [ANONM] [RUMDI] [NTIME] {nm}   grammar on Oct 24, 11:53

Thanks N. {nm}   grammar on Oct 24, 11:53

With the MTC/RS rule in effect...   BionicMoron on Oct 24, 11:54

What is the MTC/RS Effect? {nm}   dioneta on Oct 24, 12:08

The rule, as I've been told it (rule is the wrong word, as it's not always true, but for lack of a better word) is that...   Ruthian23 on Oct 24, 12:16

also there is the mtc/rs corollary which states "whenever someone posts about the mtc/rs rule, someone will ask what the mtc/rs rule is" {nm}   islander on Oct 24, 12:18

Last time it was posted I was the one who asked, so maybe we can add that the one who just got it answered will be the one to explain next. {nm}   Ruthian23 on Oct 24, 12:21

Nothing's perfect, but the RS/MTC rule has been spectacularly wrong only a few times this year, which is a better record than most other   Roger More on Oct 24, 12:34

If MTC is well above RS, then the movie wil perform above even MTC. If MTC well less than RS the movie will perform even lower than MTC. {nm}   BionicMoron on Oct 24, 12:17

Couple of clarification questions on this: 1. What do we consider "well" above or below? 2.What % of the time would people say this "works?" {nm}   Ruthian23 on Oct 24, 12:30

That's a grey area but I go with 25% {nm}   Roger More on Oct 24, 12:43

Thanks. Just one more clarification, with that number are you saying 25% more or less when it comes to the predictions (like a 50M    Ruthian23 on Oct 24, 12:54

25% is the answer for question 1. :-)   xiayun on Oct 24, 13:08

Yes. Using the predictions for PNAC3 as an example, MTC was 38, RS was 30. RS*1.25=37.5<MTC {nm}   Roger More on Oct 24, 13:10

And to your second question (earlier) - it picks the direction of the adjust 65% of the time, up there with other strong predictors   Roger More on Oct 24, 13:14

Thanks. I know how annoying I have to be with all the questions, so I appreciate the patience. {nm}   Ruthian23 on Oct 24, 13:16

It's not annoying. {nm}   Roger More on Oct 24, 13:24

Thanks for responses.. and good question Ruthian23 :) {nm}   dioneta on Oct 24, 12:44

Those are good numbers for Anonymous considering it is opening to limited release... {nm}   b4bad on Oct 24, 13:19





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The Twilight Zone (TWZON) 49999 2.03 (+0.03)         Black Widow (BWDOW) 141 146.44 (+0.86)         Under the Eiffel Tower (UNDET) 100000 0.82 (0.00)         The Wolf Man (TWLFM) 49999 6.16 (+0.03)         Godzilla: King of Monsters (GODZ2) 19 169.52 (-0.92)         James Bond 25 (JB25) 132 156.96 (+0.93)         Paul Bettany (PBETT) 20000 187.90 (-2.86)         Infinite (INFIN) 100000 32.73 (+1.89)         Three Christs (3CHRS) 1 1.84 (-0.02)         Infinite (INFIN) 100000 32.73 (+1.89)         Three Christs (3CHRS) 1 1.84 (-0.02)         Greyhound (GREYH) 6094 45.04 (+0.20)         Black Panther 2 (BPNT2) 100000 393.59 (-1.15)         Overcomer (OVRCM) 12 26.77 (+1.38)         Natalie Portman (NPORT) 20000 12.10 (+2.55)         Monster Problems (MNSTP) 100000 27.46 (+1.73)         Natalie Portman (NPORT) 20000 12.10 (+2.55)         Sylvie (SYLVE) 100000 5.30 (+1.67)         Angela Bassett (ABASS) 20000 124.34 (+3.84)         Dwayne Johnson (TROCK) 5 112.08 (+0.57)         James Bond 25 (JB25) 25 156.96 (+0.93)         The Lighthouse (LITHS) 123 12.91 (+1.41)         Infinite (INFIN) 364 32.73 (+1.89)         John Slattery (JSLAT) 20000 67.88 (+3.92)         William Hurt (WHURT) 20000 101.14 (+4.20)         Brian Banks (BBANK) 2345 19.69 (+1.57)         Winston Duke (WDUKE) 20000 142.32 (+5.28)         Robert Redford (RREDF) 20000 32.39 (+4.76)         Killers of the Flower Moon (KOTFM) 1 29.65 (+0.12)         Sylvie (SYLVE) 234 5.30 (+1.67)         Infinite (INFIN) 364 32.73 (+1.89)         Killers of the Flower Moon (KOTFM) 1 29.65 (+0.12)         Albert Brooks (ABROO) 47 82.74 (+0.40)         Sylvie (SYLVE) 5 5.30 (+1.67)         Infinite (INFIN) 3456 32.73 (+1.89)         Hayley Atwell (HATWE) 20000 124.77 (+5.92)         Infinite (INFIN) 5 32.73 (+1.89)         Rene Russo (RRUSS) 20000 89.48 (+6.12)         Monster Problems (MNSTP) 3456 27.46 (+1.73)         Wounds (VFLTH) 50000 8.06 (+0.02)         The Craft (CRAFT) 24 26.01 (+3.11)         Hayley Atwell (HATWE) 15 124.77 (+5.92)         Avengers: Endgame (AVNG4) 2345 640.87 (+3.45)         Jesus Was My Homeboy (JWMHB) 20 9.28 (+0.02)         Hayley Atwell (HATWE) 5 124.77 (+5.92)         The Little Mermaid (MERMD) 1 1.30 (0.00)         Mary Elizabeth Winstead (MEWIN) 20000 16.78 (0.00)         The Peanut Butter Falcon (PBFAL) 3456 1.54 (-0.02)         Paul Bettany (PBETT) 20000 187.90 (-2.86)         The Little Mermaid - Disney (TLMER) 1 184.58 (-0.37)