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Nothing's perfect, but the RS/MTC rule has been spectacularly wrong only a few times this year, which is a better record than most other

Posted by: Roger More (a.k.a CaineFund) on Oct 24, 12:34 in response to Ruthian23's post The rule, as I've been told it (rule is the wrong word,...

predictors.

For example, it correctly predicted big adjusts up for PNAC3, TLK3D, HNOV2, FFUR5 and LMTLS and that the following movies would disappoint - SHK3D, WARIR, STRAW, IDKHS, BIGYR, PAND2, SCRM4, SUCKP, and GWRRH.

Most times where the rule is wrong, the OW is close to MTC's prediction.Ā  Examples where the rule spectacularly missed the mark are RSAPE, IHOP which both adjusted up despite MTC being way lower than RS, and BMOM3, which adjusted down despite MTC being above RS.

Mtc 48 puss 13 time 9 rum 2.5 anonymous {nm} notfabio Oct 24, 11:42

Tagging MTC [PUSNB] [ANONM] [RUMDI] [NTIME] {nm} grammar Oct 24, 11:53

Thanks N. {nm} grammar Oct 24, 11:53

With the MTC/RS rule in effect... BionicMoron Oct 24, 11:54

What is the MTC/RS Effect? {nm} dioneta Oct 24, 12:08

The rule, as I've been told it (rule is the wrong word, as it's not always true, but for lack of a better word) is that... Ruthian23 Oct 24, 12:16

also there is the mtc/rs corollary which states "whenever someone posts about the mtc/rs rule, someone will ask what the mtc/rs rule is" {nm} islander Oct 24, 12:18

Last time it was posted I was the one who asked, so maybe we can add that the one who just got it answered will be the one to explain next. {nm} Ruthian23 Oct 24, 12:21

Nothing's perfect, but the RS/MTC rule has been spectacularly wrong only a few times this year, which is a better record than most other Roger More Oct 24, 12:34

If MTC is well above RS, then the movie wil perform above even MTC. If MTC well less than RS the movie will perform even lower than MTC. {nm} BionicMoron Oct 24, 12:17

Couple of clarification questions on this: 1. What do we consider "well" above or below? 2.What % of the time would people say this "works?" {nm} Ruthian23 Oct 24, 12:30

That's a grey area but I go with 25% {nm} Roger More Oct 24, 12:43

Thanks. Just one more clarification, with that number are you saying 25% more or less when it comes to the predictions (like a 50M Ruthian23 Oct 24, 12:54

25% is the answer for question 1. :-) xiayun Oct 24, 13:08

Yes. Using the predictions for PNAC3 as an example, MTC was 38, RS was 30. RS*1.25=37.5<MTC {nm} Roger More Oct 24, 13:10

And to your second question (earlier) - it picks the direction of the adjust 65% of the time, up there with other strong predictors Roger More Oct 24, 13:14

Thanks. I know how annoying I have to be with all the questions, so I appreciate the patience. {nm} Ruthian23 Oct 24, 13:16

It's not annoying. {nm} Roger More Oct 24, 13:24

Thanks for responses.. and good question Ruthian23 :) {nm} dioneta Oct 24, 12:44

Those are good numbers for Anonymous considering it is opening to limited release... {nm} b4bad Oct 24, 13:19





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Toy Story 5 (TOYS5) 20000 342.13 (+0.16)          The Mandalorian and Grogu (SWAR3) 100000 252.18 (-1.00)          The Simpsons Movie 2 (SIMP2) 1000 158.48 (-2.38)          Hit Me Hard And Soft (HMSAH) 10000 24.01 (-0.77)          Greenland 2: Migration (GRNL2) 148261 23.60 (-0.54)          Audition (AUDTN) 20000 4.00 (0.00)          The Chaperones (CHAPR) 20000 9.39 (-0.61)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.CA) 25000 1.64 (-0.93)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.PU) 25000 2.91 (+1.02)          David H$25 Put (DAVID.PU) 25000 2.73 (+0.30)          Avatar: Fire and Ash H$125 Put (AVAT3.PU) 25000 1.86 (+0.16)          Avatar: Fire and Ash H$125 Call (AVAT3.CA) 25000 3.21 (+0.33)          The Housemaid H$20 Call (HMAID.CA) 25000 3.13 (+0.24)          Anaconda (ANAC3) 4000 82.92 (-0.69)          David H$25 Call (DAVID.CA) 25000 2.14 (-0.36)          Empire City (EMPCT) 30000 19.00 (-0.23)          Cocomelon the Movie (COMEL) 20000 49.57 (+0.16)          The Chaperones (CHAPR) 20000 9.39 (-0.61)          FOX: Best Medicine (BESMED) 25000 8.17 (+0.14)          Flash Gordon (FLSHG) 100000 0.46 (-0.02)          FOX: Memory of a Killer (MEMOAK) 25000 9.94 (+0.13)          The Chaperones (CHAPR) 40000 9.39 (-0.61)          Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle 2 (DSIC2) 40000 90.99 (+0.95)          The Mummy 4 (MUMY5) 50000 65.62 (+0.03)          Logan's Run (LOGAN) 100000 4.49 (-0.04)          Micronauts (MCRON) 100000 0.95 (+0.01)          Battlestar Galactica (BGALA) 100000 2.52 (-0.02)          Hot Wheels (HOTWH) 100000 21.32 (-0.02)          Fackham Hall (FACKH) 150000 5.51 (-0.87)          Clue (CLUE) 100000 15.36 (-0.02)          Lobo (LOBO) 100000 23.16 (-0.06)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4) 150000 73.42 (-6.31)          Audition (AUDTN) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Audition (AUDTN) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Zootopia 2 (ZOOT2) 150000 306.09 (-1.09)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4) 143899 73.42 (-6.31)          Fackham Hall (FACKH) 150000 5.51 (-0.87)          The Housemaid H$20 Put (HMAID.PU) 25000 1.33 (-0.18)          The Housemaid H$20 Put (HMAID.PU) 25000 1.33 (-0.18)          The Simpsons Movie 2 (SIMP2) 5000 158.48 (-2.38)          Diego Calva (DCALV) 20000 5.03 (-0.05)          Diego Calva (DCALV) 25000 5.03 (-0.05)          Super Troopers 3 (STRO3) 150000 23.96 (+1.18)          Super Troopers 3 (STRO3) 150000 23.96 (+1.18)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.PU) 25000 2.91 (+1.02)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.PU) 25000 2.91 (+1.02)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.CA) 25000 1.64 (-0.93)          Quentin Tarantino (QTARA) 20000 86.74 (-1.40)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.CA) 25000 1.64 (-0.93)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.OW) 25000 22.47 (-2.89)