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Nothing's perfect, but the RS/MTC rule has been spectacularly wrong only a few times this year, which is a better record than most other

Posted by: Roger More (a.k.a CaineFund) on Oct 24, 12:34 in response to Ruthian23's post The rule, as I've been told it (rule is the wrong word,...

predictors.

For example, it correctly predicted big adjusts up for PNAC3, TLK3D, HNOV2, FFUR5 and LMTLS and that the following movies would disappoint - SHK3D, WARIR, STRAW, IDKHS, BIGYR, PAND2, SCRM4, SUCKP, and GWRRH.

Most times where the rule is wrong, the OW is close to MTC's prediction.Ā  Examples where the rule spectacularly missed the mark are RSAPE, IHOP which both adjusted up despite MTC being way lower than RS, and BMOM3, which adjusted down despite MTC being above RS.

Mtc 48 puss 13 time 9 rum 2.5 anonymous {nm} notfabio Oct 24, 11:42

Tagging MTC [PUSNB] [ANONM] [RUMDI] [NTIME] {nm} grammar Oct 24, 11:53

Thanks N. {nm} grammar Oct 24, 11:53

With the MTC/RS rule in effect... BionicMoron Oct 24, 11:54

What is the MTC/RS Effect? {nm} dioneta Oct 24, 12:08

The rule, as I've been told it (rule is the wrong word, as it's not always true, but for lack of a better word) is that... Ruthian23 Oct 24, 12:16

also there is the mtc/rs corollary which states "whenever someone posts about the mtc/rs rule, someone will ask what the mtc/rs rule is" {nm} islander Oct 24, 12:18

Last time it was posted I was the one who asked, so maybe we can add that the one who just got it answered will be the one to explain next. {nm} Ruthian23 Oct 24, 12:21

Nothing's perfect, but the RS/MTC rule has been spectacularly wrong only a few times this year, which is a better record than most other Roger More Oct 24, 12:34

If MTC is well above RS, then the movie wil perform above even MTC. If MTC well less than RS the movie will perform even lower than MTC. {nm} BionicMoron Oct 24, 12:17

Couple of clarification questions on this: 1. What do we consider "well" above or below? 2.What % of the time would people say this "works?" {nm} Ruthian23 Oct 24, 12:30

That's a grey area but I go with 25% {nm} Roger More Oct 24, 12:43

Thanks. Just one more clarification, with that number are you saying 25% more or less when it comes to the predictions (like a 50M Ruthian23 Oct 24, 12:54

25% is the answer for question 1. :-) xiayun Oct 24, 13:08

Yes. Using the predictions for PNAC3 as an example, MTC was 38, RS was 30. RS*1.25=37.5<MTC {nm} Roger More Oct 24, 13:10

And to your second question (earlier) - it picks the direction of the adjust 65% of the time, up there with other strong predictors Roger More Oct 24, 13:14

Thanks. I know how annoying I have to be with all the questions, so I appreciate the patience. {nm} Ruthian23 Oct 24, 13:16

It's not annoying. {nm} Roger More Oct 24, 13:24

Thanks for responses.. and good question Ruthian23 :) {nm} dioneta Oct 24, 12:44

Those are good numbers for Anonymous considering it is opening to limited release... {nm} b4bad Oct 24, 13:19





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Untitled Fourth Film directed by (UJPE4) 500 51.70 (+0.10)          Dracula (DRALT) 150000 3.99 (+0.20)          Dracula (DRALT) 150000 3.99 (+0.20)          Starship Troopers (STRPR) 45000 39.93 (-0.02)          Stray Kids: The dominATE Experie (SKTDE) 150000 3.73 (-0.19)          Shiver (SHVER) 500 64.46 (+7.06)          The Strangers: Chapter 3 (STRN5) 150000 11.50 (-1.83)          Shiver (SHVER) 1000 64.46 (+7.06)          The Social Reckoning aka The Soc (SOCI2) 25000 63.35 (-0.10)          Shaun The Sheep: The Beast Of Mo (SHEP3) 1000 12.59 (+0.04)          Iron Lung (IRONL) 1000 24.32 (+0.68)          Sgt. Rock (SGROC) 15000 26.37 (-0.01)          Sgt. Rock (SGROC) 5000 26.37 (-0.01)          Shelter (SELTR) 95000 13.28 (+0.48)          Shiver (SHVER) 150000 64.46 (+7.06)          Wuthering Heights (WUTHR) 150000 87.92 (-0.12)          Remain aka Untitled Shyamalan Sp (REMAN) 5000 61.63 (0.00)          John Rambo (RAMB6) 15000 35.89 (+0.36)          The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 1 17.03 (-0.97)          The Testament of Ann Lee (ANLEE) 150000 5.46 (-0.10)          The Testament of Ann Lee (ANLEE) 150000 5.46 (-0.10)          Lilo & Stitch 2 (LILS2) 14000 236.37 (-1.58)          Lilo & Stitch 2 (LILS2) 25000 236.37 (-1.58)          Hello Kitty (HLOKT) 15000 29.38 (+0.04)          The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 150000 17.03 (-0.97)          Emily the Strange (EMILY) 5000 17.39 (+0.02)          Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol (EBNZR) 35000 73.01 (-0.05)          District 10 (DIS10) 95000 16.21 (-0.04)          Cocomelon the Movie (COMEL) 10000 55.84 (-0.14)          The Conjuring: First Communion (CNJU5) 5000 82.69 (-0.23)          Broadsword (BROSW) 5000 55.71 (+0.02)          Bob the Builder (BOBTB) 5000 14.82 (-0.15)          Blade (BLAD1) 15000 26.67 (-0.07)          Armor Wars (ARMWR) 15000 33.25 (-0.22)          John Wick: Chapter 5 (WICK5) 7159 107.08 (+3.40)          Shirley MacLaine (SMACL) 25000 34.21 (+0.22)          Shirley MacLaine (SMACL) 20000 34.21 (+0.22)          Alita: Battle Angel 2 (ALIT2) 95000 32.27 (-1.26)          Alien sequel (ALIE6) 55000 71.80 (+0.18)          Aladdin 2 (ALAD2) 5000 27.35 (-0.13)          From the World of John Wick: Cai (FJWCN) 55000 38.89 (+0.12)          The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 150000 17.03 (-0.97)          The Strangers: Chapter 3 - Openi (STRN5.OW) 100000 5.50 (-0.47)          Split Fiction (SPFIC) 30000 32.29 (+0.01)          Resident Evil (RESE8) 5000 49.58 (+0.01)          Balestra (BALES) 150000 0.08 (+0.01)          John Wick: Chapter 5 (WICK5) 50000 107.08 (+3.40)          Practical Magic 2 (PRAC2) 5000 48.97 (-0.31)          Merlin (MERLN) 150000 0.09 (+0.02)          Clayface (CLAYF) 5000 71.98 (-0.37)