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Nothing's perfect, but the RS/MTC rule has been spectacularly wrong only a few times this year, which is a better record than most other

Posted by: Roger More (a.k.a CaineFund) on Oct 24, 12:34 in response to Ruthian23's post The rule, as I've been told it (rule is the wrong word,...

predictors.

For example, it correctly predicted big adjusts up for PNAC3, TLK3D, HNOV2, FFUR5 and LMTLS and that the following movies would disappoint - SHK3D, WARIR, STRAW, IDKHS, BIGYR, PAND2, SCRM4, SUCKP, and GWRRH.

Most times where the rule is wrong, the OW is close to MTC's prediction.Ā  Examples where the rule spectacularly missed the mark are RSAPE, IHOP which both adjusted up despite MTC being way lower than RS, and BMOM3, which adjusted down despite MTC being above RS.

Mtc 48 puss 13 time 9 rum 2.5 anonymous {nm} notfabio Oct 24, 11:42

Tagging MTC [PUSNB] [ANONM] [RUMDI] [NTIME] {nm} grammar Oct 24, 11:53

Thanks N. {nm} grammar Oct 24, 11:53

With the MTC/RS rule in effect... BionicMoron Oct 24, 11:54

What is the MTC/RS Effect? {nm} dioneta Oct 24, 12:08

The rule, as I've been told it (rule is the wrong word, as it's not always true, but for lack of a better word) is that... Ruthian23 Oct 24, 12:16

also there is the mtc/rs corollary which states "whenever someone posts about the mtc/rs rule, someone will ask what the mtc/rs rule is" {nm} islander Oct 24, 12:18

Last time it was posted I was the one who asked, so maybe we can add that the one who just got it answered will be the one to explain next. {nm} Ruthian23 Oct 24, 12:21

Nothing's perfect, but the RS/MTC rule has been spectacularly wrong only a few times this year, which is a better record than most other Roger More Oct 24, 12:34

If MTC is well above RS, then the movie wil perform above even MTC. If MTC well less than RS the movie will perform even lower than MTC. {nm} BionicMoron Oct 24, 12:17

Couple of clarification questions on this: 1. What do we consider "well" above or below? 2.What % of the time would people say this "works?" {nm} Ruthian23 Oct 24, 12:30

That's a grey area but I go with 25% {nm} Roger More Oct 24, 12:43

Thanks. Just one more clarification, with that number are you saying 25% more or less when it comes to the predictions (like a 50M Ruthian23 Oct 24, 12:54

25% is the answer for question 1. :-) xiayun Oct 24, 13:08

Yes. Using the predictions for PNAC3 as an example, MTC was 38, RS was 30. RS*1.25=37.5<MTC {nm} Roger More Oct 24, 13:10

And to your second question (earlier) - it picks the direction of the adjust 65% of the time, up there with other strong predictors Roger More Oct 24, 13:14

Thanks. I know how annoying I have to be with all the questions, so I appreciate the patience. {nm} Ruthian23 Oct 24, 13:16

It's not annoying. {nm} Roger More Oct 24, 13:24

Thanks for responses.. and good question Ruthian23 :) {nm} dioneta Oct 24, 12:44

Those are good numbers for Anonymous considering it is opening to limited release... {nm} b4bad Oct 24, 13:19





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Single Female (SIFEM) 150000 21.00 (+1.18)          Ebenezer - Opening Weekend (EBNZR.OW) 100000 34.71 (-0.41)          The Batman: Part II (TBAT2) 825 278.64 (+0.27)          You Can See Everything (YCSET) 20000 59.76 (-0.12)          Channing Tatum (CTATU) 25000 60.38 (+0.50)          Sam Mendes (SMEND) 25000 129.35 (+0.66)          The Beatles - A Four-Film Cinema (BEAT1) 4000 112.20 (-0.05)          James Cameron (JCAME) 25000 109.90 (+0.66)          Amy Madigan (AMADI) 25000 40.94 (+0.50)          Clayface (CLAYF) 150000 60.42 (-0.51)          Kelly Marie Tran (KMTRA) 25000 75.87 (+0.75)          Air Bud Returns (AIRB3) 100000 2.71 (0.00)          Adam McKay (AMCKA) 25000 66.26 (+0.75)          Baz Luhrmann (BLUHR) 25000 76.83 (+0.75)          Fear the Reaper (FREPR) 60000 17.70 (-0.02)          Chris Columbus (CCOLU) 25000 84.43 (+0.75)          48 Hours in Vegas (48HIV) 1 3.64 (0.00)          Winter Games (WNTGM) 90000 5.42 (-0.03)          How to Rob a Bank - Opening Week (HTRAB.OW) 100000 14.11 (-0.17)          Obey (OBEY) 90000 21.36 (-0.04)          How to Rob a Bank H$15 Put (HTRAB.PU) 25000 1.70 (+0.10)          How to Rob a Bank H$15 Call (HTRAB.CA) 25000 1.97 (-0.07)          Elden Ring (ELDEN) 162 73.47 (0.00)          Wildwood (WILDW) 45169 30.61 (+0.53)          Star Wars: Episode X (STRW1) 52500 125.47 (-0.56)          Nasty (NASTY) 50000 16.50 (+1.34)          Street Fighter (STFTR) 150000 59.56 (-0.11)          How to Rob a Bank H$15 Put (HTRAB.PU) 25000 1.70 (+0.10)          How to Rob a Bank - Opening Week (HTRAB.OW) 100000 14.11 (-0.17)          Obey (OBEY) 38183 21.36 (-0.04)          Twilight of the Dead (TWOTD) 150000 4.27 (+0.68)          How to Rob a Bank H$15 Call (HTRAB.CA) 25000 1.97 (-0.07)          Wild Horse Nine (WILDH) 150000 14.32 (+0.07)          Brad Bird (BBIRD) 25000 168.86 (-0.50)          Gold Mountain (OGMTN) 149999 15.17 (-0.06)          Top Gun 3 (TOPG3) 150000 169.42 (-0.55)          Wildwood (WILDW) 150000 30.61 (+0.53)          The Decline Of Fucking Western C (DOFWC) 150000 5.56 (+0.91)          Panic Carefully (PNCRF) 150000 25.88 (-0.23)          Wildwood (WILDW) 150000 30.61 (+0.53)          The Batman: Part II (TBAT2) 1000 278.64 (+0.27)          Last Friday (FRID4) 53864 13.74 (-1.24)          Twilight of the Dead (TWOTD) 150000 4.27 (+0.68)          Outside Man (OUTSM) 150000 10.06 (+0.40)          Panic Carefully (PNCRF) 149999 25.88 (-0.23)          You Can See Everything (YCSET) 1000 59.76 (-0.12)          The Decline Of Fucking Western C (DOFWC) 150000 5.56 (+0.91)          Turpentine (TURPN) 33951 6.62 (-0.64)          Snake Island (SNKIS) 90000 17.19 (+0.03)          Martha & Muhammad (MAMUH) 149999 6.72 (-0.17)