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Nothing's perfect, but the RS/MTC rule has been spectacularly wrong only a few times this year, which is a better record than most other

Posted by: Roger More (a.k.a CaineFund) on Oct 24, 12:34 in response to Ruthian23's post The rule, as I've been told it (rule is the wrong word,...

predictors.

For example, it correctly predicted big adjusts up for PNAC3, TLK3D, HNOV2, FFUR5 and LMTLS and that the following movies would disappoint - SHK3D, WARIR, STRAW, IDKHS, BIGYR, PAND2, SCRM4, SUCKP, and GWRRH.

Most times where the rule is wrong, the OW is close to MTC's prediction.  Examples where the rule spectacularly missed the mark are RSAPE, IHOP which both adjusted up despite MTC being way lower than RS, and BMOM3, which adjusted down despite MTC being above RS.

Mtc 48 puss 13 time 9 rum 2.5 anonymous {nm} notfabio Oct 24, 11:42

Tagging MTC [PUSNB] [ANONM] [RUMDI] [NTIME] {nm} grammar Oct 24, 11:53

Thanks N. {nm} grammar Oct 24, 11:53

With the MTC/RS rule in effect... BionicMoron Oct 24, 11:54

What is the MTC/RS Effect? {nm} dioneta Oct 24, 12:08

The rule, as I've been told it (rule is the wrong word, as it's not always true, but for lack of a better word) is that... Ruthian23 Oct 24, 12:16

also there is the mtc/rs corollary which states "whenever someone posts about the mtc/rs rule, someone will ask what the mtc/rs rule is" {nm} islander Oct 24, 12:18

Last time it was posted I was the one who asked, so maybe we can add that the one who just got it answered will be the one to explain next. {nm} Ruthian23 Oct 24, 12:21

Nothing's perfect, but the RS/MTC rule has been spectacularly wrong only a few times this year, which is a better record than most other Roger More Oct 24, 12:34

If MTC is well above RS, then the movie wil perform above even MTC. If MTC well less than RS the movie will perform even lower than MTC. {nm} BionicMoron Oct 24, 12:17

Couple of clarification questions on this: 1. What do we consider "well" above or below? 2.What % of the time would people say this "works?" {nm} Ruthian23 Oct 24, 12:30

That's a grey area but I go with 25% {nm} Roger More Oct 24, 12:43

Thanks. Just one more clarification, with that number are you saying 25% more or less when it comes to the predictions (like a 50M Ruthian23 Oct 24, 12:54

25% is the answer for question 1. :-) xiayun Oct 24, 13:08

Yes. Using the predictions for PNAC3 as an example, MTC was 38, RS was 30. RS*1.25=37.5<MTC {nm} Roger More Oct 24, 13:10

And to your second question (earlier) - it picks the direction of the adjust 65% of the time, up there with other strong predictors Roger More Oct 24, 13:14

Thanks. I know how annoying I have to be with all the questions, so I appreciate the patience. {nm} Ruthian23 Oct 24, 13:16

It's not annoying. {nm} Roger More Oct 24, 13:24

Thanks for responses.. and good question Ruthian23 :) {nm} dioneta Oct 24, 12:44

Those are good numbers for Anonymous considering it is opening to limited release... {nm} b4bad Oct 24, 13:19





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Kate Mara (KMARA) 100 10.01 (+0.10)          Love is Not the Answer (LINTA) 150000 5.00 (0.00)          Avatar: Fire and Ash - Opening W (AVAT3.OW) 100000 116.80 (-5.03)          Robert Eggers (REGGE) 25000 38.92 (+0.12)          A Great Aawkening (AGAWK) 150000 10.00 (0.00)          Avatar: Fire and Ash - Opening W (AVAT3.OW) 100000 116.80 (-5.03)          Ma 2 (MA2) 24000 18.12 (-0.16)          Love is Not the Answer (LINTA) 150000 5.00 (0.00)          Ma 2 (MA2) 27000 18.12 (-0.16)          John Leguizamo (JLEGU) 100 60.43 (+1.00)          A Great Aawkening (AGAWK) 150000 10.00 (0.00)          Jimmy (JIMYS) 3 9.10 (+0.55)          Swamp Thing (SWAMP) 1000 24.03 (0.00)          Swamp Thing (SWAMP) 4000 24.03 (0.00)          Fuze (FUZE) 10000 13.84 (+0.05)          Gemma Arterton (GARTE) 100 7.90 (+0.05)          Shelter (SELTR) 14000 22.34 (-0.13)          Swamp Thing (SWAMP) 6000 24.03 (0.00)          Dylan O’Brien (DOBRI) 100 26.78 (+0.12)          Anaconda H$30 Call (ANAC3.CA) 25000 1.12 (-0.12)          Grendel (GREND) 28000 15.06 (-0.06)          Danny Trejo (DTREJ) 100 85.82 (+1.30)          By Design (BYDSG) 4 0.52 (-0.04)          Grendel (GREND) 28000 15.06 (-0.06)          Juliette Lewis (JLEWI) 24994 17.03 (+0.11)          Daisy Ridley (DRIDL) 100 4.51 (+0.10)          Normal (NORML) 75000 20.29 (+0.09)          Cillian Murphy (CMURP) 100 97.27 (+0.50)          Love is Not the Answer (LINTA) 2832 5.00 (0.00)          Cara Delevingne (CDELE) 100 52.82 (+0.16)          Bill Skarsgard (BSKAR) 100 55.57 (+0.16)          Uncharted 2 (UNCH2) 28000 20.92 (-0.10)          Ben Affleck (BAFFL) 100 44.65 (+0.33)          Uncharted 2 (UNCH2) 7000 20.92 (-0.10)          Christine (CRSTN) 150000 17.74 (+1.05)          Aubrey Plaza (APLAZ) 100 6.65 (+0.20)          Godzilla x Kong: Supernova (GOKO3) 147 148.41 (+0.97)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.CA) 10000 0.44 (-0.34)          Godzilla x Kong: Supernova (GOKO3) 1146 148.41 (+0.97)          Amanda Seyfried (ASEYF) 100 30.35 (+0.22)          Wicked: For Good $315M Blockbust (WCKD2.BW) 25000 7.03 (+0.56)          Eternity (ETERN) 1000 14.13 (-0.71)          Eternity (ETERN) 4000 14.13 (-0.71)          Avatar: Fire and Ash - Opening W (AVAT3.OW) 10000 116.80 (-5.03)          My Ex-Friend's Wedding (MEXFW) 28000 10.84 (-0.09)          My Ex-Friend's Wedding (MEXFW) 3000 10.84 (-0.09)          James Gunn (JGUNN) 1000 212.58 (-1.02)          Avengers: Secret Wars (AVNG6) 2000 461.17 (+1.01)          The Strangers: Chapter 3 (STRN5) 1000 8.44 (+0.01)          Cliffhanger (CLFHN) 4000 9.80 (0.00)